On the prediction market Polymarket, four accounts have invested $28.3k in "No" for the question "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before May?" Currently, the probability of "Yes" is 24%.

Among these four accounts, hopedieslast has a 65% win rate in the geopolitical sector with a total profit of $411k; debased has a total profit of $921k in the political sector; armageddonrewardsbilly has a total profit of $520k in the political sector; ScottyNooo has a total profit of $1.3M in the political sector.

The US has initiated a blockade of Iranian shipping, but "diplomatic efforts are still ongoing"; Trump states that Iran is still in contact with the US and hopes to reach an agreement. The US is blocking Iranian ports to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and push for a peace agreement; meanwhile, talks with Pakistan have just been declared a failure, with both sides currently only "allegedly open to further talks," and the current ceasefire will expire on the 22nd.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that negotiations between Iran and the US have made progress on several issues but have not yet reached a final agreement; he attributes the failure to reach a result over the weekend to the US's constantly changing demands and believes they are still in the "progress made" stage, not the "agreement finalized" stage.

Note: Based on this trader's past trading profile, they are not betting on whether the event will actually happen, but engaging in behaviors such as taking profits or stopping losses at certain points after opening a position. #Gate13周年Dr.Han公开信