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On-Chain "Exchange Reserve" Linkage Strategy (Exchange Reserve Flow)
Logical Explanation: Contract prices are influenced by spot selling pressure. By monitoring the net inflow and outflow of BTC/ETH on exchanges, one can determine whether large investors are "stockpiling" or preparing to cash out.
* Detailed Operations:
1. Tool Assistance: Use on-chain data platforms (such as Glassnode or CryptoQuant).
2. Identify Divergence:
* Bullish Divergence: Price is falling, but the exchange's BTC reserves are decreasing sharply (large investors moving to cold wallets).
* Bearish Divergence: Price is rising, but the exchange's BTC reserves are increasing sharply (large investors preparing to dump).
3. Entry: When on-chain indicators show a clear divergence from price trends, position long-term bottom orders in the futures market.
Case Analysis:
Price retraces to support levels, and on-chain data shows that in the past 24 hours, 20k BTC have left exchanges.
* Result: This indicates that the actual market supply is shrinking. At this point, taking a low-leverage long position in the futures market greatly increases the success rate compared to pure technical analysis.
$BTC