Hormuz is blocked, but BTC still rose? The world has finally gone crazy to look like what I’m familiar with.

Crude oil exported from the Middle East to Asia, from 13.4 million barrels daily, has dropped directly to 4 million barrels.
A 70% decline.
This is not an economic crisis; it’s a countdown to war.
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Beijing time, April 13th, 10 PM.
15 U.S. warships, P-8 patrol aircraft, E-2 early warning planes, drone swarms, have sealed off the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran announced the highest combat alert. Missiles loaded, drone stockpiles “ample.”
The Philippines declared a national energy emergency. Gasoline prices doubled.
Indonesia and Vietnam ordered remote work. Australia began mobilizing fuel reserves.
The United Nations said: energy and food shocks could push 32.5 million people into poverty.
And then?
BTC rose 4.5%, surpassing $74,000.
Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened high today, KOSPI up 2.4%.
You taste it, you savor it.
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The market isn’t crazy; it’s resigned in advance.
Many will ask: Isn’t war bad news? Why is BTC rising?
I tell you, the way you’re asking this question is wrong.
The correct question is: When did the market start to see war as good news?
The answer is: When everyone knows the war can’t be avoided.
Nuclear negotiations? Collapsed.
The U.S. wants Iran to stop for 20+ years and have all uranium shipped out. Iran says at most 5 years and uranium won’t leave the country.
Vance said very plainly: Iran’s negotiation team has no final authorization, so what’s the point of talking?
But what’s interesting is—The New York Times leaked that Iran is internally studying “giving up uranium enrichment as a condition to end the war.”
What does that mean?
Fight first, then negotiate.
The market understood.
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Talking about why BTC is rising, don’t talk to me about safe-haven attributes.
Don’t tell me that tired phrase “Bitcoin is digital gold.”
When real war breaks out, ordinary people’s first thought is how to exchange for dollars, how to buy canned food.
So why is it rising?
Because there’s a group of people whose money can’t go out.
Think about it:
Hormuz is blocked, oil prices skyrocket.
Oil prices skyrocket, inflation skyrockets.
Inflation skyrockets, fiat currency devalues faster.
If you have 100k USDT, what would you want to convert it into?
Yen? Japan is right next to Asia, and the worst hit by the oil cutoff.
Euro? Europe’s oil also comes from Hormuz.
Physical assets? Shipping insurance now costs an arm and a leg.
In the end, the only thing that can quickly cross borders, doesn’t rely on physical transport, and isn’t tied to any country— is BTC.
It’s not because it’s so great.
It’s because everything else is worse.
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Ordinary people are panicking, the wealthy are already moving.
Look at Circle (CRCL), which rose 7% last night.
Stablecoin infrastructure is being regarded as a “defensive allocation” in high volatility environments.
In plain language:
Big funds haven’t left. They’re looking for safer ways to re-enter.
Filipino common folks can’t afford gas, Indonesian white-collar workers are forced to work from home.
And another group is shoving their wealth out of this physical world’s cracks into blockchain.
The UN says 32.5 million people will fall into poverty.
Who said that? Who’s responsible? No one.
The rules of the world were never designed for the majority. The majority are just built into the rules.
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In the next three months, a few things you need to think through:
First, oil won’t get cheaper.
If the blockade lasts three months, U.S. and European refineries will cut production, and there will be severe shortages of aviation fuel, diesel, LNG.
All transportation costs will rise, and everything else will go up.
Second, don’t dream of “bottom fishing.”
This is not a bear market; it’s chaos. Bear markets have bottoms, chaos has none.
Third, BTC may continue to rise, but the volatility will be so huge you won’t sleep.
This isn’t value investing; it’s wartime speculation. You can participate, but you must be clear about what you’re betting on.
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Our generation has never experienced a true global supply chain breakdown.
Thinking that online shopping, refueling, supermarket shelves being full is a given.
It’s not.
That’s just a byproduct of peace.
Once peace is compromised, all those “givens” will be taken back one by one.
BTC rose not because it won.
It’s because everything else lost.
You don’t need to understand Bitcoin. What you need to understand is: when the physical world starts locking doors, someone will always find a way in through the window.
And how long this window can hold?
Who knows.
Anyway, the door is already closed.
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