After Trump's speech, gold and U.S. stock futures plunged again, and the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains a concern.

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Written by: Senior Analyst David Scutt, IG Group

· No signs of ending the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

· Crude oil prices surge, estimated 15 million barrels per day still offline

· Gold and S&P 500 index heavily hit due to rapid gains earlier

· Inflation and growth risks rising simultaneously, policymakers caught in dilemma

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Reassessment of Risks in the Strait of Hormuz

In his latest televised address, U.S. President Trump updated not only the American people but also the world on the progress of the “Epic Firestorm” operation. He stated that the U.S. has approached its goals regarding Iran but did not provide a clear timeline for de-escalation. Instead, he hinted that strikes could continue for two to three weeks, leaving room for further escalation, including targeting energy infrastructure.

The core market issue is the Strait of Hormuz, whose reopening time and method remain uncertain, causing a large part of global energy supply to effectively stall, forcing traders to price in a long-term blockade rather than a short-term resolution.

This uncertainty has severely impacted risk appetite, and markets are eager to reassess the ongoing supply disruption risks.

Source: TradingView

Crude oil prices surge, precious metals fall, stocks decline consecutively, reversing early gains before Trump’s speech, while the dollar and bond yields rise. Roughly estimated, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a daily loss of about 15 million barrels of oil supply. Since the conflict erupted, total supply loss has approached 500 million barrels, representing a significant portion of the global system, tightening inventories and increasing shortage risks.

The macro issue is straightforward. It’s both an inflation shock and a growth shock, making it difficult for policymakers to respond decisively. Rising energy costs push inflation higher but also weaken demand and slow economic activity.

By effectively communicating to the world that oil sources are being sought elsewhere (including from the U.S.), structural risk premiums are now embedded in energy prices for the foreseeable future.

Considering this, the movements of gold and the S&P 500 reflect the immediate macroeconomic deterioration following Trump’s speech.

Gold under pressure in support zone

Source: TradingView

After Trump’s speech, gold’s performance has resembled that of risk assets rather than safe havens, with prices falling back to test the February 6 low of $4,656, which previously triggered a sharp rebound. This level has been tested twice on the 4-hour chart and held, but in the current environment, it may face pressure again.

Below it is the 100-day moving average at $4,648, visible on the daily chart, consistent with the upward trend since the June lows. Together, they form a critical support zone that traders should watch closely.

If this zone holds, bulls might consider building positions above $4,656, with stops below this level or below the March uptrend line, depending on risk appetite. The target is to retake $4,800, a key short-term level above, marking the start of the significant decline in March. Early resistance in this trading session reinforces its importance, with $4,900 as a secondary reference, then watch the previous support at $4,975.

If a clear breakout occurs, bears might set stops above the trendline for protection, with initial targets at $4,500 and an intermediate level at $4,600. A break below $4,500 shifts focus to the March 27 low of $4,353.

Momentum on the 4-hour chart is weakening. The RSI (14) has fallen from overbought territory to just above 50, and the MACD is turning back toward the signal line, appearing close to a crossover. This is more a warning for bulls than a clear trigger for bears, but in the current environment, downside risks could materialize quickly.

S&P 500 back in the fight for 6,500 points

Source: TradingView

The S&P 500 may have experienced a corrective rebound, but the overall bearish structure since March remains unchanged. It hit the March downtrend line early in this session and was rejected again, falling back to the critical 6,500 level.

As shown, since October last year, prices have often found support below this level and rebounded multiple times until finally breaking below on March 26, triggering a decline to a low of 6,312, then rebounding toward the end of the month.

Traders considering strategies should focus on the 6,500 level. If this level is broken convincingly on a closing basis, it could form a good short entry zone, with stops above, targeting the March lows. Between now and then, the recent volatility around 6,437 offers a noteworthy reference point.

If the 6,500 level holds, consider going long above it, with stops below for protection, aiming to retake the March downtrend line. A sustained breakout could open the door to a rally toward the 200-day moving average at 6,661, breaking the bearish structure. The next target is 6,700, with the 50-day and 100-day moving averages converging as another key zone.

Given the signals from oscillators and the downward sloping 50- and 100-day moving averages, traders tend to sell into rallies before the March downtrend is broken. This balances directional risk and provides a more balanced approach when evaluating trading strategies.