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After the Iran-U.S. war, the Democratic Party significantly led in prediction markets for the U.S. midterm elections.
Prediction market Polymarket data shows that the probability of the Democratic Party winning the House in the 2026 midterm elections has risen to 86%, the probability of the Democrats winning the Senate has increased to 52%, and the chance of a “sweep” controlling both chambers has reached 51%. Another platform, Kalshi, predicts a similar probability of 47.1%. A year ago, the Republicans had over an 80% chance of holding onto the Senate. This change occurred after the Trump administration launched a military strike against Iran in early March 2026.