Guotai Junan Futures: Why Did the Market "Vote with Its Feet" After Trump Declared a "Victory"?

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Guotai Junan Futures Market Analyst

Chen Junhao

Investment Advisory License Number: Z0021546

Currently, the US-Iran situation has entered a critical game phase. This morning, U.S. President Trump delivered a nationwide televised speech, once again triggering intense market volatility. So what exactly did he say this time? How did the short-term markets react? How should we view the future geopolitical trends and market changes?

“Victory Declaration,” “Blame Shifting” Strategy, Threats of Attack

This morning’s speech can be roughly summarized into three parts.

1. Unilaterally declaring victory: Trump claimed a “quick, decisive, overwhelming victory” over Iran; described the strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities as a “huge success”; stated Iran’s missile and drone capabilities have been “greatly weakened,” with weapons factories and rocket launch sites “almost eliminated”; and said the core strategic goal of the Iran conflict is “nearly achieved.”

2. “Blame shifting” strategy, inciting oil grabbing: He claimed the U.S. “does not need” the Strait of Hormuz, and countries relying on the strait for oil must “take responsibility for maintaining this passage”; urged these countries to either “buy oil from the U.S.” or “gather the courage to directly ‘grab oil’ in the Strait of Hormuz,” and declared that once the Iran conflict ends, the strait will “naturally reopen.”

3. Threats of strikes in the coming weeks: Warned that within two to three weeks, U.S. forces will carry out “extremely fierce” strikes on Iran, and if no agreement is reached, the U.S. will target all of Iran’s power plants with heavy attacks, possibly attacking oil facilities; claimed satellite surveillance has closely monitored Iran’s nuclear sites, and threatened that any signs of rebuilding will be met with “another heavy missile strike.”

Market reignites panic sentiment

After the speech, media interpretations of Trump’s statements varied and some questioned them. Mainstream U.S. media collectively doubted his unilateral victory declaration, but the facts suggest otherwise; some outlets emphasized that his remarks could escalate regional instability. Notably, at the end of Trump’s nationwide speech, Iran launched a large number of missiles at Israel, directly challenging his claim of having achieved a decisive victory.

The short-term market reaction was also very intense, with risk assets under renewed pressure. U.S., European, and Asia-Pacific stock markets all declined across the board; in commodities, the “irresponsible” stance on strait security and threats of continued strikes in the coming weeks challenged expectations of the strait’s reopening, reigniting panic. Oil prices surged rapidly, driving rebound in energy products, while precious metals experienced a clear pullback due to the “see-saw” effect.

How to view the speech’s impact on the future market?

Firstly, regarding the speech itself, the content was limited but emotional intensity was high, consistent with Trump’s usual style. Currently, the U.S. economy faces rising inflation pressures, limited monetary policy room, and high trade and fiscal stresses, with global growth expected to slow amid ongoing conflicts. Meanwhile, Trump’s approval ratings have fallen to new lows during his term. According to a late March survey by YouGov, his net approval rating dropped to -23%, with only 35% of Americans approving his performance, while 58% disapproved. On April 1, the latest U.S. polls showed Trump’s support on economic issues fell to 31%, a new low. Therefore, he linked the conflict to domestic interests, justifying military actions by emphasizing “never allowing Iran to acquire nuclear weapons,” calling it “necessary to protect the U.S. and the world,” and implying that war “costs are very low and benefits are high,” with the U.S. economy “fully prepared,” aiming to downplay public and market concerns and boost support.

Secondly, from a geopolitical perspective, Trump has previously signaled a willingness to de-escalate, but this speech both declared victory and issued clear threats of escalation, reflecting a certain degree of willingness to step back from conflict. Iran’s stance remains tough; the Iranian Foreign Minister recently stated Tehran rejects the “final deadline” and is prepared to “fight at least another six months.” Therefore, we should continue to monitor geopolitical uncertainties and Iran’s attitude, and not overestimate the short-term possibility of a ceasefire.

Finally, from a market sentiment perspective, Trump’s speech again triggered panic, especially regarding the “hands-off” attitude toward the strait, which in practice suggests the short-term reopening of the strait is unlikely, and global energy supply chains remain highly uncertain. Thus, in the near term, we should pay attention to the volatility driven by changing situations. Even if the conflict substantially de-escalates, we need to consider different phases of the situation, as risk premiums, rising costs, and supply-side constraints will gradually impact the market. After the conflict eases, besides short-term sentiment recovery, we should also focus on the long-term effects on the global energy landscape and the fundamentals of energy and chemical products.

With the upcoming three-day holiday and market closure, overseas markets still face high uncertainty, and related commodities may experience significant intraday volatility. Investors are advised not to overtrade at this time, to monitor single-position risks before the holiday, and to operate cautiously.

Source: Xinhua News Agency, CCTV News, First Financial, Jintou Futures, compiled from public data

Deadline for submission: 2026.4.2 16:45

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