Shouchuang Futures: Excess capacity is difficult to offset against cost and demand negatives, with the main glass contract hitting a nearly one-year low.

Spot market, float glass spot prices are 1,169 yuan/ton, stable compared to the previous trading day. Transactions in the North China market are average, downstream orders are weak, mainly driven by urgent procurement. In the East China market, companies mainly focus on shipments, with cautious purchasing by mid- and downstream buyers.
In terms of supply, Taiwan Glass Tianjin’s 600-ton/day line started water injection on April 1. Currently, there are 204 glass production lines in operation domestically, with 90 lines under cold repair or shutdown, and the daily melting volume of float glass has decreased to 143k tons. Last week, the total inventory of sample enterprises for float glass nationwide was 143k heavy boxes, down 810,000 heavy boxes from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 1.09%, and up 9.86% year-on-year. This week, some float glass production lines are expected to reduce output, and weekly production may continue to narrow.
In terms of demand, the average order days for deep-processing sample enterprises nationwide is 6.11 days, down 3.74% from before the holiday, and down 23.6% year-on-year. Demand recovery is slow, processing factories’ orders are weak and below the same period last year, with downstream funds tight, mainly driven by urgent procurement. Raw sheet manufacturers still face significant inventory pressure, with flexible shipment strategies.
In summary, float glass still has expectations of cold repairs, and daily melting volume may continue to decline. However, weak real estate data and subdued deep-processing orders are dragging down the glass market performance. Additionally, upstream fuel and soda ash prices continue to weaken, so short-term glass futures are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to cost price trends, downstream order situations, and production line changes (Chuangchuang Futures).