Energy crisis! The last batch of Hormuz oil tankers before the war is about to arrive, and the global supply shortage is entering a countdown.

Mars Finance News, April 14 — As the United States officially imposed a maritime blockade on the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, a key milestone is approaching — the last batch of oil tankers that departed the strait before the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28 will arrive at refineries around the world in the coming days. Analysts warn that this marks a new phase in the global oil shortage crisis.
According to the Financial Times, the final pre-war shipment is expected to arrive in Malaysia and Australia before April 20, and the last shipment headed to the United States will also dock before the end of this week.
JPMorgan Chase pointed out that Denmark received its last batch of aviation fuel from Kuwait last weekend.
Energy Aspects analyst Nick Dale warned: “When all the goods purchased in Asia leave the Atlantic basin, the impact will reach the West in a month. European and American refineries will also be forced to cut production starting next month.”
The physical market has already come under pressure. North Sea Forties crude oil prices surged to nearly $149 per barrel on Monday, reaching a new high since the eve of the 2008 financial crisis, while Brent crude futures are trading at about $100 per barrel.
JPMorgan analyst Natasha Kaneva said that refineries in Europe and Asia are fiercely competing for the remaining shipments, with spot crude oil prices now premium over futures reaching record highs.
According to Energy Aspects data, the average daily arrival of Middle Eastern crude oil (excluding Iran) into Asia in the first two weeks of April has fallen to 4 million barrels, far below the normal level of 13.4 million barrels.
TotalEnergies CEO Bujanne warned Monday that if the blockade lasts more than three months, there will be “serious supply issues” for aviation fuel, diesel, and liquefied natural gas, potentially leading to rationing.
The crisis has triggered chain reactions in multiple countries. The Philippines, which relies on Middle Eastern imports for over 95% of its oil, announced a state of energy emergency after local gasoline prices doubled; Indonesia and Vietnam have instructed citizens to work from home; Australia has used its fuel reserves, cut fuel taxes, and launched a national fuel security plan.
UNDP warned that, due to the triple shocks of rising energy and food prices and economic downturn, up to 32.5 million people could fall into poverty.