"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: The Hormuz Crisis May Become Prolonged, Rising Oil Prices Will Reshape Global Asset Pricing

ME News report: On April 6 (UTC+8), Garrett Jin, the agent of “1011 Insider Whale,” posted 《Oil is the War》. He said the current conflict in the Middle East is continuing to escalate, and the disruption period for the Strait of Hormuz may be far longer than market expectations. Oil prices rising is not only an outcome; it is also the core variable in this round of conflict. As the situation shifts from airstrikes to ground operations, the conflict could evolve into a long-term war of attrition. Iran does not need to win; it only needs to increase the cost of the war to force its opponent to seek withdrawal. Against this backdrop, the Strait of Hormuz is difficult to restore shipping passage quickly, and crude oil supply continues to be constrained.

On prices, WTI crude oil has recently been unusually higher than Brent crude oil, reflecting a reshaping of the global supply-and-demand structure and a shift in Asian buying toward U.S. crude. Analysts believe this is not only a short-term contract factor, but also a signal that the entire global crude oil pricing curve is moving upward. Garrett Jin expects that, in the baseline scenario, oil prices may stay in the $120 to $150 range; if the conflict continues into a longer cycle, there is even a possibility of testing $200. He emphasized that although the market has already priced in the conflict itself, it has not yet fully priced in the risk of the conflict becoming “prolonged.” Oil prices will become the core variable affecting interest rates, exchange rates, the stock market, and the crypto market. If a full-scale ground war breaks out without a quick victory, global assets may face a chain reaction of repricing. (Source: PANews)