Current Core Operation: Only buy the dip, do not chase highs, strictly control position size.

1. Macro and Situation: The sword has been drawn
Today (April 13), the market's unilateral decline is rooted in the shift from "verbal threats" to "actual blockade" in geopolitical conflicts.
· Factual judgment: U.S. forces began implementing a physical blockade of Iranian ports at 22:00 Beijing time. This is no longer speculative hype but a real supply-side shock.
· Market signals: Oil prices broke through $100, APAC stock markets opened lower, confirming risk aversion sentiment. Notably, traditional safe-haven assets like gold also declined, indicating the market is selling everything to obtain dollar liquidity rather than purely seeking safety.
2. Crypto Ecosystem: Passive blood loss, fragile structure
· Liquidity withdrawal: During the initial outbreak of geopolitical crises, institutions need to reduce risk exposure. Bitcoin, due to its high liquidity, became the primary asset sold. In the past 24 hours, long positions were liquidated for $202 million, with passive closing of longs exacerbating the price spiral downward.
· Key support test: Bitcoin (BTC) is again testing the $70k-$70,500 range. If this level is broken, the next support is at $68,500. Ethereum (ETH) and altcoins are showing even weaker momentum, with Solana already exhibiting signs of sustained selling pressure.
3. Unique Insight: The "boots on the ground" effect
Markets usually price in the highest uncertainty. Last night's plunge was a reaction to "negotiation breakdown," while today's decline is digesting the expectation of an "actual blockade."
Once the blockade is implemented and the worst-case scenario materializes, panic often peaks. Comparing to the historical pattern in October 2025, within 60 days after conflict erupts, Bitcoin's performance typically outperforms gold and the S&P 500. The current decline is carving out a short-term "golden pit."
4. Positioning Advice
Aggressive (Left-side trading):
· Action: Place staggered buy orders for BTC in the $68,500-$70,000 range.
· Logic: Bet on the emotional recovery after the "boots on the ground" event. Use a 3-5% stop-loss (e.g., below $68,000) to gain rebound space toward the $73,000 resistance.
Conservative (Right-side trading):
· Action: Stay put, refuse to bottom fish. Neither cut losses nor add positions.
· Logic: The risk of geopolitical conflict escalating into a long-term crisis exists, and with CPI data just released, the macro trading window is closed. Wait until the price reclaims above $72,000 before considering entering, although profits will be smaller, the certainty is higher.
Emergency Risk Control:
· Check contract holdings. Current volatility is extremely high. In the battle for the $70,000 level, high leverage can be easily liquidated during sharp moves. If heavily leveraged, consider reducing leverage near the rebound at around $71,500. #Gate13周年Dr.Han公开信 $BTC