Bitcoin Faces Breakout Threshold: 3 Price Scenarios Targeting the $80,000 Mark

Basically, I think we are preparing for a bullish breakout of $BTC.
To achieve that, I have three possible scenarios.
Scenario 1 - Immediate breakout to $80k within the next few weeks (35%)
The reason is quite simple.

• $BTC has been consolidating within this range for several weeks without a breakout. A volatility shock is likely unavoidable.
• The $74k area has been tested three times, with resistance levels weakening each time.
• RSI indicator is at 40.
• Market sentiment remains at the lowest recorded level.
• The weekly moving average coincides with the resistance level at $80k.
• $BTC has served as a safe haven since the Iran war began.
  Scenario 2 - Fullcrum Bottom (45%)
  This is a more probable scenario, as it likely requires more liquidity to push the price higher.
• There is clear buying volume in the $64-66K range, which is necessary for a breakout rally.
• There is a clear triangle pattern; looking at the February pattern, there was a false rally before the market reversed.
• After such a sharp decline, there is no longer any supply support on the market.
• The support level $65K has been very strong since the market crashed in February.
  Scenario 3 - Continued rally towards $52-54K (20%)
  It’s clear that if the $64-66K range does not hold as support, I predict the downtrend will continue.
  This could happen if the market experiences shocks, geopolitical escalations, and sudden panic.
  Again, considering all data points indicating the lowest levels in a long time, I believe this scenario has the lowest probability at this moment.
• Large buy volume is accumulating in the order book below $60K .
• This will be a 1/2 sigma deviation from the moving average in the downward direction --> a great buying opportunity.
  Clearly, if scenarios 2 or 3 occur, I will look to execute buy trades targeting the $80k zone.
  When it comes to the $80,000 resistance zone, it will be an ideal area to make some buy entries and take profits.