Focusing on gold investment to analyze the risk-avoidance puzzle, Huaxia Fund video podcast releases a new episode

In 2026, the gold market experienced a volatile correction amid frequent global geopolitical conflicts. The traditional safe-haven logic seemed to “fail,” triggering widespread investor anxiety and confusion. On April 2nd, Huaxia Fund’s in-depth research interview series “DeepTalk” released its second episode as a video podcast, featuring renowned macroeconomist Pan Xiangdong and Yuming Min, Head of Investment Business in China at the World Gold Council. They engaged in an in-depth dialogue with Huaxia Gold ETF fund manager Rong Ying, focusing on the core topic: “Geopolitical Conflicts vs. Gold Corrections: Safe-Haven Failure or Investment Opportunity?” They dissected the underlying logic behind gold price fluctuations, clarified misconceptions about gold investing, and provided professional and practical gold allocation solutions for ordinary investors.

Falling Instead of Rising

Four Forces Create Short-Term Suppression

This dialogue directly addresses the key issues investors care about in the gold market. The guests first pointed out that current investor anxiety about gold investment mainly stems from treating gold—a medium- to long-term asset allocation “ballast”—as a short-term trading instrument, falling into the trap of chasing gains and selling on dips. From market performance, recent gold corrections are not due to a structural failure of its safe-haven properties but result from the combined effect of multiple short-term factors: rising oil prices triggered by Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts increase inflation and rate hike expectations; liquidity realization needs from Middle Eastern capital; sovereign countries selling gold to maintain fiscal and exchange rate stability; plus, the flight of speculative and leveraged funds earlier, forming a fourfold short-term suppression that temporarily covers gold’s safe-haven attributes with stagflation trading logic.

Regarding the widely discussed “buy gold in chaotic times” logic losing effectiveness, the team provided an in-depth analysis of gold’s fundamental pricing. Gold’s core safe-haven value derives from its scarcity-driven anti-inflation properties and its unique advantages of no sovereign credit risk and no counterparty risk. This is also the main reason why global central banks have continued to significantly increase their gold holdings after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Historical experience shows that during initial extreme events combined with monetary tightening cycles, gold often experiences short-term corrections. However, in the medium to long term, its functions of credit hedging and safe-haven remain solid. Similar situations occurred during the 2008 financial crisis and the early stages of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, with gold prices subsequently rebounding upward.

The dialogue also revealed notable features of the current gold market: a divergence in perceptions and operations between Eastern and Western funds, and a split between short-term and long-term capital behaviors. Central banks in developing economies continue to buy large amounts of gold, especially in Asia, driven by long-term considerations of geopolitical risks and US dollar credit risks. Meanwhile, European and American funds focus more on short-term interest rate fluctuations, with speculative capital frequently entering and exiting driven by price sentiment. It’s worth noting that the global central bank gold allocation ratio has not yet reached historical extremes, leaving room for further increases, which supports the medium- to long-term value of gold allocation.

Opportunities Outweigh Risks in the Future

A Medium- to Long-Term Asset Allocation Anchor

For practical questions most concerned by ordinary investors, the guests provided clear answers and suggestions. In terms of investment mindset, it’s essential to maintain the long-term allocation principle of gold, viewing it as a diversification tool in a portfolio rather than a short-term trading product. Managing position sizes helps control emotional capacity and avoid excessive anxiety caused by short-term fluctuations. Regarding allocation proportions, it’s recommended to keep gold at 10%-20% of personal idle assets, avoiding full allocation, and following the principle of diversified asset allocation.

In choosing investment tools, the guests offered differentiated options based on risk preferences: low-risk investors can choose bank savings gold, supported by physical gold for long-term holding; moderate-risk investors should prioritize gold ETFs, which have low fees, high liquidity, and closely track gold prices, making them a cost-effective choice; high-risk investors may consider gold stocks and gold stock ETFs, but should be aware that their prices are also influenced by company operations and interest rates, carrying higher risks than gold itself. The guests also reminded that gold jewelry, due to high processing costs, is more of a consumption attribute rather than an ideal investment product. Domestic gold ETFs and savings gold are backed by physical gold, breaking the misconception of “paper gold.”

Regarding specific operational strategies, dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is widely regarded as the best approach for medium- to long-term gold investment. Investors can reduce their investment amount when gold prices rise and increase it when prices fall, smoothing out short-term volatility. Additionally, investors don’t need to monitor the market constantly; they can review their gold holdings quarterly, assess portfolio proportions, and adjust positions as needed, paying close attention to the mid-term trends of real interest rates, US dollar credit premiums, and global central bank policy cycles.

Looking ahead to 2026 and the medium- to long-term gold market, the team unanimously believes that investment opportunities outweigh risks. The high scale of US debt, ongoing global geopolitical risks, continued central bank gold purchases, and the weakening of stock-bond hedging effects all support the medium- to long-term upward trend of gold. Meanwhile, short-term uncertainties in Federal Reserve monetary policy may cause phase fluctuations in gold prices but are unlikely to alter the overall positive trend. Additionally, the increasing correlation between gold and AI assets, both benefiting from global geopolitical competition, suggests that if AI sectors experience volatility, gold’s safe-haven role will be further emphasized, making it an important hedge in asset portfolios.

Evolving Content Expression

Making Research and Investment Support More Warm

As a leading domestic asset management firm, Huaxia Fund has been deeply engaged in active research for many years, continuously building a comprehensive multi-asset platform, accumulating rich industry resources and research experience. The company also emphasizes transforming professional research results into accessible, forward-looking analyses that investors can understand and learn from—allowing more investors to hear and see in-depth analysis of hot investment topics, helping them recognize changes, seize opportunities, and make wiser decisions in a complex and volatile market.

Huaxia Fund’s “DeepTalk” adheres to the philosophy of multi-category, multi-perspective, and long-cycle content, each episode focusing on the most concerned investment tracks, inviting heavyweight guests from industry, academia, research, government, and business, connecting core industries with investment frontiers, aiming to provide multi-dimensional decision-making references.

In 2026, “DeepTalk” was upgraded to a video podcast format, emphasizing “form optimization, core continuity”: maintaining the original deep interview logic and high signal-to-noise ratio research insights, while integrating the advantages of video podcasts—combining audio-visual elements and scene visualization. This approach preserves the long-tail value of in-depth dialogues, while using more natural, spontaneous conversations to enhance authenticity and emotional engagement, better meeting current users’ demand for genuine, substantial, and in-depth content. Through ongoing efforts, “DeepTalk” has built a complete content ecosystem covering live streams, videos, audio, and articles, forming a dual-track pattern of domestic dissemination and international expansion, making professional research content more vivid and intuitive for a broad investor audience.

Risk Warning:

Investors can trade this ETF on stock exchanges just like stocks, with main costs being broker commissions and fund operation fees (Huaxia Gold ETF and Huaxia Gold Stock ETF management fee 0.15% per year, custody fee 0.05% per year, deducted from fund assets). The primary market subscription/redemption fee rate is less than 0.50%. Huaxia Gold ETF has a risk level of R3, other products R4. Risk and return characteristics: Huaxia Gold ETF is a commodity fund, with over 90% of assets invested in domestic gold spot contracts. Gold spot contracts differ from stocks and bonds, with different expected risks and returns. It operates on a T+0 trading mechanism, which shortens fund operation cycles and may cause short-term volatility risks. Specific risks include: investment risks in the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot market, secondary market premium/discount risks, risks of participating in gold deferred delivery contracts, lending risks, subscription/redemption errors, IOPV calculation errors, delisting risks, subscription/ redemption failure risks, settlement delays, liquidity risks of redemption proceeds, and risks of net asset value falling below face value after distribution, among others. Refer to the fund contract and prospectus for details. Risks specific to gold stock ETFs include: investing via Hong Kong Stock Connect exposes investors to risks from market environment, investment targets, market systems, and trading rules, such as higher volatility, exchange rate risks, and risks from non-consecutive trading days. For details, see the fund contract and prospectus. This material is for reference only and does not constitute legal, investment, tax, or accounting advice. The company does not guarantee the final operational suggestions based on this material. Under no circumstances is the company responsible for any losses caused by using this information. Markets are risky; invest cautiously.