Shenwan Hongyuan Futures: The easing of US-Iran conflicts has positively influenced expectations in the A-share market, with global capital markets showing significant divergence in the first quarter.

With tensions between the US and Iran easing, US dollar index futures rose sharply in early trading. It is expected that today’s A-share market trend will be broadly positive. In the previous trading day, the stock indexes surged and then pulled back; the basic chemical sector led the gains, while the banking sector led the declines. Market trading volume was 1.62 trillion yuan.

In terms of funds, on April 3, the financing balance decreased by 17,486 million yuan to 25,627.23 billion yuan. In the first quarter of 2026, global capital markets will show three core features: global divergence, technology revaluation, and policy disruptions. The Federal Reserve has released a hawkish signal of “higher for longer,” and expectations for rate cuts have been revised downward. Soaring yields on US Treasuries, combined with geopolitical risks in the Middle East, have triggered a tightening of global liquidity and a cooling of risk appetite.

In the second quarter, the market will enter a period of intensive disclosure of quarterly reports. The market logic will shift from “trading on expectations” to “watching for results to be realized.” For high-valuation growth stocks (especially technology and growth sectors), the pressure from rising risk-free rates and ongoing compression on the denominator will persist; only earnings that exceed expectations can support valuations. Meanwhile, assets with low valuations, high dividend yields, and stable cash flows will have stronger defensive characteristics. (Shenwan Hongyuan Futures)