AI-driven semiconductor industry upgrade: multiple links in the supply chain usher in new opportunities

100k square meters of exhibition space, 1,500 domestic and international semiconductor companies participating, an expected 180k professional visitors, nearly 20 forums… On March 25th, the Semiconductor “Carnival” SEMICON China 2026 opened at the Shanghai New International Expo Center.

SEMICON China is regarded as a barometer of industry development trends in the semiconductor sector. The opening keynote speech also released multiple signals about industry development directions. Several speakers stated that under the strong drive of AI, the global semiconductor industry has not only entered a new development cycle but also begun a new era of industry upgrading.

Currently, AI computing power demand is experiencing explosive growth, chip process miniaturization has gradually approached physical limits, advanced packaging has become the core path to continue Moore’s Law, and industry value is fully emerging; at the same time, high costs of advanced chip R&D and increased system-level integration complexity have elevated the core value and strategic importance of industry chain segments such as chip testing and EDA tools, making their importance increasingly prominent.

AI Drives Trillion-Scale Industry Scale to Arrive Early

“The new era of AI computing power has arrived, and the computing revolution is sweeping the world at an unprecedented speed, profoundly reshaping the landscape and development mode of the semiconductor industry.” Sun Guoliang, Senior Vice President and Chief Product Officer of MuXi Co., Ltd., said in his keynote speech, that the wave of AI computing power is driving semiconductor companies to achieve leapfrog growth.

As a GPU chip company, MuXi Co. is a direct beneficiary of the AI explosion. Sun Guoliang introduced: In 2022, the company launched its first self-developed chip, with annual revenue less than 500k yuan; in 2023, the first-generation chip achieved mass production, with annual revenue exceeding 50 million yuan; benefiting from the AI large model boom in 2024, the company’s annual revenue approached 750 million yuan; in 2025, the company’s revenue exceeded 1.6 billion yuan.

“Currently, the semiconductor industry has not only entered a new development cycle but also begun a brand-new era of development.” Regarding the industry changes enabled by AI, Feng Li, President of SEMI China, said.

In fact, AI has become the primary growth driver of the semiconductor industry, significantly accelerating the arrival of the global trillion-dollar semiconductor milestone.

In his opening speech, Feng Li introduced that according to the latest data from WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics), global semiconductor sales in 2025 will increase by 25.6% year-on-year to reach $791.7 billion. Based on SEMI and industry data, the global semiconductor industry scale is expected to reach $975 billion in 2026, just one step away from the trillion-dollar mark. This is four years earlier than the previous market estimate of reaching a trillion-dollar scale by 2030.

Advanced Packaging Leads Industry Flagship Equipment Opportunities

Faced with slowing Moore’s Law and sharply rising costs of single-chip computing power, advanced packaging has been regarded in recent years as another path to continue Moore’s Law and break through chip performance bottlenecks.

“Advanced packaging has reached a turning point and is expected to truly take up the banner of continuing Moore’s Law.” Zheng Li, CEO of JCET Group, said that atomic-level packaging is a revolution in precision within advanced packaging, which will thoroughly reconstruct chip integration logic.

Zheng’s judgment is based on the fact that the precision of advanced packaging has crossed three orders of magnitude across four dimensions: in alignment accuracy, traditional packaging only needs to meet a 5-micron standard, but advanced packaging aims for below 50 nanometers, with next-generation technology targeting within 10 nanometers; in surface roughness, traditional packaging reaches 50 nanometers, but advanced packaging aims for below 5 nanometers, with next-generation targets below 0.2 nanometers; in interconnect density, traditional packaging has only 100 contacts per square millimeter, but advanced packaging aims for over 10k, with next-generation targets at 60k; in interface gaps, traditional packaging allows 100 micrometers, but advanced packaging aims to control within 10 micrometers, with next-generation goals achieving atomic-level gapless bonding.

Achieving atomic-level packaging relies on the coordinated support of core equipment. Zheng Li explained that the atomic-level process matrix requires key equipment such as ALD (Atomic Layer Deposition), TSV (Through-Silicon Via) process equipment, hybrid bonding equipment, ALE (Atomic Layer Etching) equipment, and others.

The sustained high growth of AI demand has driven the capacity expansion of global logic and memory chips, bringing long-term growth dividends to the semiconductor equipment market, with China’s semiconductor equipment industry expected to grow faster than the global average.

Feng Li stated that by 2025, China will account for about 32% of the world’s mainstream semiconductor manufacturing capacity, and this is expected to rise to 42% by 2028.

Importance of EDA Tools and Chip Testing Becomes Prominent

As chip design and packaging complexity and R&D costs continue to rise, some previously less-focused industry segments are becoming more important and are key to high-quality industry development, leading to a reassessment of their value. EDA tools and chip testing are typical examples.

“Developing chips at advanced process nodes costs between $5 billion and $8 billion, and integrating hundreds of millions of transistors into a single chip is unprecedented. Any minor design mistake can cause huge losses, making high-precision EDA software even more critical.” Ankur Gupta, Executive Vice President of Siemens EDA AI Product Division, said that AI technology is reshaping the development landscape of the EDA industry.

Shanghai Securities News noted that system design services have become the core growth engine for global EDA companies. Kengten Electronics’ latest financial report shows that 45% of its revenue comes from system-level customers. Synopsys’ latest quarterly revenue was $2.41 billion, with 37% from Ansys, which was acquired by Synopsys for its multi-physics simulation and verification platform.

Zheng Li said that high-end testing has become one of the core technical bottlenecks in 3D packaging development, specifically in stacking alignment accuracy, massive data processing pressure, and high equipment costs. “The core value of testing lies in ensuring chip reliability and precise performance verification.”