Apple futures prices have retreated over two days, erasing a week's worth of gains. What happened?

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Source: Futures Daily

After a strong rally last week, the main contract price of apple futures fell sharply for two consecutive days, fully reversing last week’s gains, and market sentiment quickly shifted from hot to cold. As of the close on March 24, the main contract of apple futures AP2605 closed at 10,072 yuan/ton, down over 3%, with open interest also showing a significant decline.

Behind this price plunge, is it rational profit-taking by longs or a subtle change in fundamentals?

Guoxin Futures agricultural product analyst Li Jingyi believes that the significant reduction in positions of the main apple futures contract indicates that longs are choosing to take profits and exit, which is an important reason for the price decline.

CITIC Construction Investment Futures senior researcher Chen Yuhao said, “From March 19 to 20, the rapid rise in apple prices was accompanied by an increase in open interest, which once exceeded 94,000 lots. However, in the following two trading days, open interest quickly dropped to over 70,000 lots, a decline of 22%. The rapid decrease in open interest can be understood as longs exiting the market.”

From the spot market perspective, it is currently a critical period for apple stockpiling during the Qingming Festival, and the market shows obvious structural differentiation.

Li Jingyi stated that on the supply side, the overall inventory of apples in the market is at a historically low level, supporting prices. According to relevant institutions, as of March 19, 2026, the nationwide cold storage apple inventory was 4.1892 million tons, 1.80% lower than the same period last year. However, inventory structural issues are prominent, with good-quality fruit in production areas being tight, while supplies of medium and lower-quality sources are abundant.

On the demand side, stockpiling demand has started, but buyers’ purchasing attitudes vary. Li Jingyi explained that in Shandong, there are many foreign trade orders, and foreign traders are actively purchasing, mainly small fruits and some #80 fruits. Meanwhile, in main producing areas like Xianyang in Shaanxi and Jingning in Gansu, cold storage remaining stocks are relatively low, and buyers are actively preparing for Qingming Festival stockpiling. Overall, traders’ stockpiling activities are gradually expanding, and cold storage shipments are expected to increase step by step.

“Due to quality issues, there are not many buyers in the Shandong production area currently, and cold storage transactions are average,” Li Jingyi added. Coupled with the month-on-month decline in fresh apple exports in February, this is the realistic background for the weak operation of the futures market.

Looking ahead, Li Jingyi said that in the short term, the stockpiling for Qingming Festival and consumption during the holiday are crucial. “The first half of the year has many festivals, which is the golden sales period for apples. As storage time extends, apple quality will face tests, and the sales window in the second half of the year will narrow. Therefore, the sales situation during Qingming and Labor Day holidays will be the core variables for the market.” She predicts that due to the limited quantity of good-quality apples, prices will remain high, while poor-quality sources will have sluggish sales, and the market for different qualities will continue to diverge. For the AP2605 contract, affected by declining yield and premium fruit rate, there is some support at the lower end, and it may fluctuate within a wide range in the future.

In the medium to long term, Li Jingyi believes that the market will focus on inventory reduction in production areas and the growth of new season apples. “Weather conditions during the 2026/2027 growing season and changes in planting area will influence the market trend and need close attention.”

Chen Yuhao pointed out that as the flowering period approaches at the end of March to April, market attention will shift to the AP2610 contract, which may gradually become the new main contract. For the AP2610 contract, it is necessary to consider the weather conditions during flowering and fruit setting in main producing areas dialectically—on one hand, to be alert to extreme weather such as large-scale “late spring cold spells” like in the 2018/2019 season; on the other hand, if market sentiment is impacted by supply-side news, it’s important to recognize that fruit farmers have some room for adjustment during flower thinning and fruit thinning processes.

Industry insiders believe that the sharp fluctuations in the short-term market reflect concerns about the terminal consumption capacity under high prices. In the coming period, actual consumption during Qingming Festival and weather changes in the new season apple-producing areas will be key factors in determining the market trend.

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Editor: Zhao Siyuan