Analysis: Bitcoin retreats to $71k, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz reignite, suppressing risk appetite

Mars Finance reports that after the rebound driven by the ceasefire in the Middle East subsides, Bitcoin hovers around $71k, Ethereum is approximately $2,190, and the overall crypto market is weakening in sync. Analysis indicates that the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations and escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have brought the market back to the macro trading logic of “rising oil prices—rising inflation expectations—decreased risk appetite.” Institutions believe that Bitcoin faces significant resistance near $74k, compounded by crude oil returning above $100, which puts pressure on risk appetite. However, most opinions suggest that the current correction has not yet evolved into panic selling. Data shows that last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs still saw nearly $1 billion in net capital inflows, and liquidation scales were significantly lower than in the first quarter, indicating an improved market capacity to absorb shocks. Structurally, the $70k to $80k range still faces strong selling pressure, with approximately 13.5 million addresses in floating loss, limiting upward potential. Meanwhile, open interest in futures contracts has decreased by over 50% from its 2025 high, indicating that excessive leverage has been somewhat cleared, and market structure is becoming healthier. Currently, Bitcoin resembles a macro asset more than an independent market, with its trend still highly dependent on inflation and liquidity conditions. Against the backdrop of renewed US inflation and cautious monetary policy, Bitcoin is likely to remain volatile in the short term.