I think I finally understand why altcoins aren't rising. According to an analysis released recently by major market makers, the traditional four-year cycle of the cryptocurrency market no longer seems to be functioning.

The data for 2025 is quite shocking. It shows that the duration of altcoin price rallies has been shortened to about 20 days on average. Last year, it was nearly 60 days, so it has shrunk to about one-third. In other words, the situation where cryptocurrencies don't rise has become the norm for many altcoins.

What’s happening is that most of the new capital is being absorbed by a few large-cap coins. Funds are concentrating into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some major altcoins, leaving small- and medium-sized projects behind.

Previously, the trend was different. There was a cycle where capital flowed into BTC first, then into ETH, and subsequently into the broader altcoin market. This narrative-driven flow shaped the market. However, that traditional cycle is weakening.

One reason is that ETFs and digital asset treasury companies have evolved into a "closed ecosystem." These investment products bring stable capital to BTC, ETH, and limited altcoins, but because their investment scope is restricted, there’s little capital moving into a wider range of altcoins. Liquidity is confined to specific assets.

Furthermore, individual investors’ interest is shifting toward themes in the stock market, such as AI and quantum computing. The reason cryptocurrencies aren’t rising is partly because investors’ focus has moved to other markets.

From 2026 onward, it’s pointed out that for the altcoin market to expand, one of three conditions must be met: an expansion of investment targets, a rise in BTC or ETH prices that spills over into the entire altcoin market, or a return of individual investors’ interest from the stock market.

Signs such as ETF applications for Solana and XRP have already appeared. However, it’s still unclear how much capital will actually flow into the altcoin market. It’s considered least likely that individual investors’ interest will return.

Ultimately, the traditional four-year cycle prediction model no longer applies. We’ve entered an era where it’s necessary to carefully analyze liquidity flows and changes in investor sentiment. If the market is undergoing a structural shift, then strategies must also change.