#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 The Strait of Hormuz, how to leverage the world's financial order

In the spring of 2026, a strait less than 50 kilometers wide caused a thrilling "switch game" in global markets. Between opening and closing, oil prices fluctuated like a roller coaster, gold repeatedly hit new highs, and cracks in the oil dollar system became increasingly visible. This is not just a simple geopolitical conflict but a deep reshaping of the global financial order that affects everything.
1 Background
On February 28, 2026, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, officially triggering a 43-day turbulence cycle in the global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz, a seemingly insignificant narrow waterway on the map, handles about 20%–30% of global oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation daily, with over 17 million barrels of oil passing through on average each day. It is the world's most critical energy choke point; once closed, the "vessels" of the global energy system become blocked. Since the blockade, Brent crude oil prices soared from about $73 per barrel to $116, a nearly 60% surge before the conflict, setting a record high.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that if the blockade lasts more than 25 days, the global crude oil supply gap could reach 20 million barrels per day, with oil prices potentially soaring to $200 per barrel, with an impact surpassing 2–3 times that of the 1973 oil crisis.
On April 8, under Pakistani mediation, the U.S. and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, temporarily reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, the good times did not last—shortly after two oil tankers safely passed, the strait was closed again, with Iran stating that "the basis for negotiations has not yet been met."
On April 10, the U.S. and Iran held their first formal negotiations in Islamabad, with about 2,000 ships still stranded in the Persian Gulf and around 20k sailors caught in a humanitarian crisis. Behind this "switch game" is a deeper struggle for interests. Iran's preconditions for negotiations include: full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the unfreezing of all overseas assets, etc. The White House has denied any agreement to unfreeze Iranian assets so far. Negotiation disagreements are significant, and the situation could reverse at any time.
2 Chain reactions
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not just about fluctuations in energy prices; it is triggering a systemic chain reaction in the global economy.
(1) Asia: the most vulnerable victims
Asia is the weakest link in this crisis. Japan relies on 95%, South Korea 70%, and the Philippines 98% of their oil imports directly through the Hormuz route. JPMorgan reports that the Gulf conflict caused about 2.4 million barrels per day of refinery capacity to shut down. South Korea has imposed vehicle restrictions, the Philippines has declared a state of energy emergency, and Sri Lanka has implemented fuel rationing—regional anxiety about energy security is mounting.
(2) Food and chemicals: overlooked disasters
The Middle East is not only an energy hub but also a global fertilizer producer. The closure of the strait has disrupted one-third of global fertilizer shipping, with urea futures prices soaring 50%. Qatar supplies one-third of the world's helium—used in semiconductor manufacturing and medical equipment—and the supply chain is under threat due to LNG production disruptions. Plastic raw material naphtha prices have increased by 40%, gradually passing costs to consumers.
(3) Shipping: full blockage
About 1,000 ships are trapped in the Strait of Hormuz, including 800 oil tankers. It will take 6–8 weeks for the global shipping network to recover, with weekly losses of up to $50–60 million. European natural gas prices (Dutch TTF) doubled, and Qatar's LNG export capacity has decreased by 17% (12.8 million tons per year), with a repair cycle of 3–5 years.
3 Some peculiarities
This crisis is "somewhat peculiar"—why are both the short-term dollar strengthening and gold soaring? It’s understandable that the dollar rises in chaos due to safe-haven demand, but gold usually moves in tandem, which is rare. What does this indicate?
The answer is: the three pillars of the oil dollar system are simultaneously loosening.
First, the security guarantee is failing. The oil dollar system was established in the 1974 US-Saudi agreement, based on the logic that Saudi Arabia settles oil in dollars and the U.S. provides security protection. But now, U.S. military protection credibility is seriously shaken— the Hormuz blockade exposes security vulnerabilities, and Saudi Arabia is accelerating its defense independence, with 85% of Middle Eastern oil now sold to Asia.
Second, the monopoly on settlement is breaking. During the crisis, Iran demanded some ships pay transit fees in RMB, and countries like Pakistan and India responded.
Data shows: Saudi Arabia's oil settlement with China in RMB has reached 41%, surpassing the dollar for the first time; Iran's crude oil exports to China are 100% settled in RMB; Iraq's RMB settlement ratio exceeds 60%; the share of the dollar in global reserves has fallen to 56.8%, decreasing by about 0.6 percentage points annually.
Third, capital outflow disruption. The "oil dollar loop" operates as: Middle Eastern oil revenues → purchase of U.S. Treasuries → financing U.S. deficits. But now, Middle Eastern sovereign funds are reducing Treasuries and increasing gold holdings, withdrawing investments from U.S. AI sectors. Japan has been forced to sell trillions of dollars in Treasuries to stabilize the exchange rate, increasing pressure on the U.S. bond market—this is a core reason for gold hitting new highs repeatedly. Gold prices in London once broke through $5,200 per ounce, reflecting the true price signal during the vacuum of the old system's collapse.
4 China’s perspective
For China, this crisis is both a challenge and a strategic opportunity, but it requires high alertness.
The challenge is that China is the world's largest crude oil importer, and Middle Eastern oil remains vital to China’s economy. Although China has about 20k barrels of strategic oil reserves (supporting roughly 240 days) and can adjust via pipelines from Russia, energy security pressures remain significant.
The opportunity lies in the historic window for RMB internationalization. The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) now covers 185 countries, and digital RMB bridge projects are being tested in over 30 countries, reducing cross-border settlement time from the SWIFT system’s three days to minutes, with transaction costs cut by over 50%. On April 12, China’s Inner Mongolia Free Trade Pilot Zone was officially inaugurated, covering Hohhot, Manzhouli, and Erenhot, with a total area of 119.74 square kilometers. Both Manzhouli and Erenhot are important land ports for Russia and Mongolia. Under the pressure on maritime routes, the strategic value of land-based energy and trade corridors is rapidly increasing.
5 Trend projections
How should we interpret these negotiations? Will "uranium" and the "strait" truly reach an agreement, or is it just another short-lived ceasefire?
Looking at history, U.S.-Iran negotiations have gone through three major milestones: the 2015 nuclear deal, the first contact in June 2025, and the second in February 2026. The Islamabad talks feature a large U.S. delegation led by Vice President Vance (about 300 people) and an Iranian team led by Parliament Speaker Kalibaf (71 people). The disparity in their lineups hints at the difficulty of negotiations.
In the short term, no substantial breakthroughs are expected for three reasons:
First, Iran’s hardliners will never give up control of the Strait of Hormuz;
Second, Israel continues attacks on Lebanon, and Iran has threatened to withdraw from the ceasefire—Israel remains a "veto" factor U.S. cannot bypass;
Third, domestic inflation in the U.S. driven by high oil prices is being exploited by opponents, and Trump’s eagerness to reach an agreement is being used against him.
From a broader macro perspective, three long-term trends are truly reshaping the landscape:
First, the diversification of energy settlement currencies—from "oil dollar" to a multi-track system including "oil RMB + gold + domestic currencies";
Second, accelerated energy transition—China’s wind and solar capacity now accounts for over 50% of the global total;
Third, competition in digital currency infrastructure—who can establish the first global digital financial infrastructure, the digital RMB cross-border settlement system or the U.S. dollar stablecoin system, will hold the initiative in the next 50 years.
The "switch game" of the Strait of Hormuz is essentially a deep struggle for dominance over the global financial order. Oil price fluctuations are superficial; the fissures in the oil dollar system are underlying. The internationalization of the RMB and the reshaping of energy transition patterns are the true themes reflected by this crisis. In a world full of variables, what we need is not sensational emotional venting but a calm, analytical understanding of the phenomena. Recognizing the trends allows us to find our place amid the great changes of the era.