CICC Wealth Futures: US-Iran negotiations cause a sharp drop in international crude oil prices, soybean futures market faces pressure and pulls back

Driven by the start of negotiations between the US and Iran, international crude oil prices saw a sharp drop, and the CBOT soybean futures market came under pressure and retreated. Signs of easing in the Middle East situation mean that the decline in crude oil will weaken demand for soybean oil biofuels, and the probability that the US soybean oil market will follow down from its high levels has risen rapidly. With the US 2026 soybean crop about to enter the planting season, the US Department of Agriculture expects the US soybean planting area to increase versus the previous year. Agricultural consultancy AgRural said that as of April 2, Brazil’s soybean harvest progress had reached 82%, lower than 87% in the same period last year. Export data released by Brazil’s Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) showed that Brazil exported 14.51 million tons of soybeans in March, down 1% year over year. Weather forecasts indicate that Argentina will see scattered showers and thunderstorms in the coming days, which is favorable for the growth of late-planted soybeans. As the weather window in South America tightens, the likelihood of weather-driven speculation in South America this year will decline significantly. (CICC Wealth Futures)