Why is the US-Iran conflict considered a historic boon for new energy, and why will it have a profound impact on the future?

Ask AI · How does the US-Iran conflict accelerate the global energy independence process?

This is the 1296th original article in the front line of new energy

A historic major benefit for new energy is coming!

This is not clickbait, but Leo genuinely believes it is a real historic boon!

The direct reason is the recent US-Iran conflict, which everyone has become numb to hearing about!

Why would the US-Iran conflict be a historic benefit for new energy?

** 01 **

The US-Iran conflict is a historic boon for new energy

In fact, after this US-Iran conflict, new energy also showed a wave of performance, and the market logic was very simple: under high oil prices, new energy naturally benefits.

But objectively speaking, judging by the recent performance of the capital market, everyone is still treating new energy as event-driven, and has not truly realized the historic change this event brings to the new energy industry, which is also the reason for the recent ups and downs in the new energy sector in the secondary market, all following the latest news of the US-Iran conflict.

This is too shortsighted. If it’s just seen as an event-driven factor, there is a lot of uncertainty. Now, if the market interprets the impact of the US-Iran conflict as a positive for new energy, can we interpret it the other way around? Once the conflict is over, the US is likely to control Iran’s oil through supporting puppet regimes, strengthen its petrodollar system, and to counter China’s new energy strategy, it will probably maintain ample oil supplies, which will suppress long-term oil prices, ultimately being unfavorable for the development of new energy industries.

Actually, there’s nothing wrong with that reasoning; it makes sense. It can even be said that this is very likely the core reason why Trump insisted on attacking Iran, because a large part of America’s competitiveness relies on the dollar. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar’s backing mainly depended on oil. Controlling the global oil supply stabilizes the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency, ultimately maintaining America’s global dominance. The strategy is quite clear.

** 02 **

Global energy security is imminent

Looking at a longer-term perspective beyond event-driven factors, it becomes clear that the US-Iran incident is definitely a historic turning point for the new energy industry.

The principle is not that complicated: energy security!

Energy is fundamental. Fossil fuels are currently and will remain the main energy source for a long time to come. But what’s quite troublesome is that oil and gas are entirely at the mercy of nature—you have it or you don’t. The main known reserves are mainly in the Middle East, but the region is extremely unstable, with occasional disturbances, and the US often stirs the pot. For a long time to come, it will be difficult to ensure no new disruptions.

(( Image from Earth Knowledge Bureau)

So what to do?

If another blockade of the Strait of Hormuz occurs, will the whole world stop functioning?

Energy security must be firmly in our own hands to be truly safe (from this perspective, China is an extremely foresighted, security-conscious country—by vigorously stockpiling oil and gas, and simultaneously developing hydropower, wind, and solar energy, it aims to secure its energy independence).

Thus, the only choice is renewable energy. Among renewables, nuclear power requires high technical standards and has certain safety risks, with slow construction cycles, making it less suitable; hydropower is similar to oil and gas—if it’s there, it’s there; if not, it’s not—although not as precious as oil and gas, suitable sites for hydropower are limited, and construction takes time. The most suitable options are wind and solar, which are available in every country, with differences only in resource richness. Among them, photovoltaic (solar) is progressing the fastest.

Therefore, after this incident, it is inevitable that governments around the world will accelerate their energy security plans. In fact, before this, countries and regions like Europe, the US, and Japan had already been speeding up their green energy transitions, but geopolitical reasons had slowed progress.

But in the face of an energy crisis, the conflicts and ideological disputes between Europe, America, and China are insignificant. The next step will be to accelerate importing Chinese wind and solar products, build their own green energy systems, and increase the proportion of green energy in the national energy mix—this will likely become one of the most important tasks for many countries or regions.

** 03 **

Preliminary validation of the logic

This is not just Leo’s personal speculation; it is already a fact. Europe and America have begun to accelerate their new energy transitions. For example, the EU is speeding up the revision of the “Renewable Energy Law” (EEG) and the North Sea offshore wind plan (targeting 300 GW by 2050). Additionally, the UK will abolish 33 tariffs on wind turbine components (blades, cables, etc.) starting April 1, 2026, to accelerate domestic installation.

This is just the beginning. It is highly likely that other countries will also accelerate their imports of Chinese new energy products to build their energy security strategies.

Currently, fossil fuels account for over 60% of the global energy structure, still the dominant share, with wind and solar making up about 15%. There is huge room for substitution. As long as global trade routes remain smooth, and countries increase their wind and solar capacity targets, China’s overcapacity problem in the renewable sector could become a temporary challenge.

From this perspective, the wind and solar industry in 2026 will not be overly pessimistic; it might even significantly exceed market expectations. The first quarter of 2026 could be a turning point. From Q2 onward, with the US-Iran conflict ending and global trade resuming normalcy, the accelerated import of Chinese wind and solar products will likely lead to impressive performance in Q2.

Of course, whether this will unfold exactly as the optimistic scenario suggests remains to be seen, but for the new energy industry, this is an unquestionably long-term positive. The global shift to green energy is an unstoppable historic trend.

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Author’s note: These are personal opinions and for reference only.