#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Strait blockade causes oil prices to surge, analysts: panic peak has passed, is the market immune to Trump?

After the U.S. announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the market responded with familiar reactions: crude oil prices soared, bond yields rose, and the dollar strengthened. But unlike previous instances, aside from oil prices, other assets reacted relatively restrained this time. U.S. crude oil prices jumped at the open on Monday (April 13), currently trading around $104.10 per barrel, up approximately 7.8% intraday.
　　Asian stock markets generally declined, but the falls were moderate, with major benchmark indices down about 1%. U.S. stock index futures also fell less than 1%, indicating that panic sentiment has not fully spread, and investors have priced in some geopolitical risks in advance, reducing sensitivity to headline news.   
Global X ETFs strategist Billy Leung said that many believe Trump’s blockade statement is a negotiation tactic. He pointed out: “The market has reached a peak of uncertainty, and the reaction function is no longer as extreme as before.” Recent market trends show that investors are becoming more adaptable to geopolitical shocks, with volatility easing compared to previous weeks.
　　Ten Cap Chief Portfolio Manager Jun Bei Liu believes that volatility indicators suggest the worst panic may be over. He said: “VIX rose significantly a few weeks ago, which could have been peak fear and selling… From now on, the market is self-adjusting.”
　　Both pointed out that investors now have a deeper understanding of Trump’s motives, and the market is no longer overreacting.
　　Oil Price Rise and Asset Performance
　　The Strait of Hormuz, as a global energy chokepoint, has seen a significant reduction in traffic since the conflict began. The blockade measures have reinforced supply tightness expectations, pushing oil prices higher and intensifying global inflation concerns. U.S. crude oil prices jumped at the open on Monday, and U.S. gasoline prices returned above $4 per gallon. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen over 300 basis points since the conflict erupted.   
　　Gold prices behaved unusually, slightly retreating amid escalating geopolitical tensions, mainly due to emerging market central banks selling gold to stabilize their currencies. During Monday’s Asian-European session, spot gold traded around $1,472.50 per ounce, down about 0.5% intraday compared to the previous trading day’s close. Nonetheless, analysts expect gold demand could rebound if tensions in the Middle East ease.
　　Short-term Risks and Stock Market Rebound Expectations
　　Analysts generally expect oil prices to rebound after short-term volatility. Michael Yoshikami of Destination Wealth Management said: “I am quite confident that oil prices will fall back from current levels… We will see oil return to $80 per barrel again.” He believes the U.S. and Iran will eventually reach a negotiated solution, and current risk premiums will quickly dissipate.
　　Standard Chartered’s Steve Brice pointed out that high oil prices will delay expectations of easing monetary policy, putting upward pressure on bond yields and the dollar, but these are temporary phenomena because the U.S. is seeking ways to downgrade the situation.
　　Brice believes that as long as the situation does not worsen significantly, stock market positioning is conducive to a rebound. “Investors are still in defensive positions, but the macro backdrop is relatively constructive, leaving room for a stock market rebound.”
　　Market Shifts from Panic to Pricing Phase
　　The market is currently in a delicate balance: on one hand acknowledging increased geopolitical risks, on the other expecting hostilities to eventually ease. Investors interpret Trump’s statements more calmly, no longer triggering the panic sell-offs seen in early conflicts.
　　Yoshikami summarized: “This is not a binary outcome, but a gray area.” Political timelines such as war powers resolutions are key recent risks, and Trump’s administration may face greater pressure in the coming weeks. The market’s attention to these constraints remains to be seen.
　　Overall, the market has shifted from initial panic to a risk-pricing phase, with declining volatility indicators suggesting the peak of fear may be over, but geopolitical events will still influence short-term trends.
　
　　While the U.S. military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up oil prices and sparked inflation concerns, risk assets like stocks responded mildly, indicating that investors have pre-absorbed some risks and are turning toward negotiation prospects. Oil prices may remain high in the short term, but analysts believe they will decline as the situation stabilizes. Gold performance has diverged, and bond yields reflect adjustments in monetary policy expectations.
Future market directions depend on the pace of conflict de-escalation and political timeline pressures. Short-term uncertainties remain, but the panic phase appears to be over.