On-chain signals reveal: Bitcoin is closer to the bottom than expected, and market sentiment is underestimated

Bitcoin is currently in one of the most decisive technical positions of this cycle. Above, millions of short-term holders in loss form a heavy resistance barrier; below, the cost basis of long-term holders provides solid support. As of April 13, 2026, Gate Market data shows Bitcoin at approximately $70,700, with a market cap of about $1.33 trillion and a market share of 55.27%. This price sits precisely in a sensitive zone between the aforementioned support and resistance levels.

On the surface, since reaching a historical high of around $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has retraced about 43%, and market sentiment has been in the “extreme fear” zone for over 20 days. However, beneath this emotional low point, on-chain data is transmitting a signal that many participants may overlook—the structural bottom of this correction may be near.

Price Falling into the Pressure Zone: Key Levels Revealed by Four Cost Bases

Glassnode’s latest risk indicator chart overlays four key on-chain price models on Bitcoin’s spot price, clearly showing the current market position relative to different investor groups’ cost bases.

Risk indicator, source: Glassnode

Realized Price — about $54,000

This is the average on-chain cost basis for all Bitcoin in the network. Bitcoin’s current price above this level indicates that the average holder is in profit. Historically, the realized price is the most fundamental long-term support level; during the 2022 bear market, prices fell below the realized price and quickly formed an ultimate bottom. The current price still has about 23% buffer from the realized price, which is a structurally positive signal.

Real Market Mean — about $78,000 to $82,000

The real market mean is an optimized indicator based on the realized price, removing the influence of long-dormant tokens and weighted by actual economic activity, providing a more accurate reflection of the market’s “fair value.” Currently, the spot price is below this level, indicating that a significant portion of active market participants’ holdings are at unrealized losses.

Active Investor Average — about $88,000

The active investor average measures the average cost basis of investors actively participating in trades. The current price is significantly below this level, indicating that active investors are experiencing notable unrealized losses, which will also serve as an important resistance during rebounds.

Short-term Holder Cost Basis — about $81,000 to $84,000

Short-term holders are defined as investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. The current price is well below their average cost basis, meaning most recent entrants are at unrealized losses. According to CryptoQuant data, short-term holders are currently at an average of about 19.4% unrealized loss. Historically, this state is both a source of ongoing selling pressure and a precondition for chip turnover and bottom formation.

The current price of $70,700 is just above the realized price but below the other three key cost bases. This structure places Bitcoin in a historically tested “pressure zone”—not the deep bear scenario of 2022 when prices fell below realized price, nor the strong region during a bull market’s main rally, but a typical mid-term correction bottoming phase.

Technical Indicators: Bearish Momentum Diminishing, Critical Point Approaching

On-chain cost bases define the market’s fundamental structure, while technical indicators provide real-time references for momentum and trend reversals.

Weekly Dimension: Signs of Oversold Margins Accumulating

From the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 33.59, approaching the oversold zone below 30. Previously, in February 2026, the weekly RSI briefly dipped into oversold and quickly rebounded. During the 2022 bear market, RSI remained in oversold territory for weeks, but the current indicator has not reached such extremes, implying that the market still has some distance from typical bear market bottoms, but downward momentum is waning.

BTC/USDT weekly chart, source: Tradingview

The weekly MACD is currently in deep negative territory but is gradually approaching its first golden cross. The last weekly MACD golden cross occurred in May 2025, triggering a strong rebound. However, during the 2022 bear market, even a MACD cross did not immediately reverse the downtrend, so a single golden cross signal must be combined with other indicators for comprehensive judgment.

Daily Dimension: Fragile Rebound Attempts

The daily chart shows a more complex signal pattern. The support zone around $73,000 to $74,000—corresponding to the March 2024 high—has recently broken downward, turning into resistance. This means bulls need to break through this area to confirm a trend reversal.

The daily RSI, after two oversold shocks in December 2025 and February 2026, has rebounded to a neutral zone around 40–50. Panic selling has temporarily subsided, but bullish momentum has not yet been clearly established. If the daily RSI can break above 60, it will be an important confirmation of trend change.

BTC/USDT daily chart, source: Tradingview

The daily MACD has completed a fragile golden cross, with the histogram oscillating narrowly around zero, reflecting a market in consolidation rather than a clear directional choice. Whether this golden cross can hold and whether the histogram can continue to expand in positive territory will determine if subsequent buying can form effective momentum.

Market Sentiment and Macro Environment: Dual Pressures

While analyzing on-chain data and technical indicators, it’s essential to consider the macro environment and sentiment background.

Extreme Signal from Fear Index

As of mid-April, the Cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index has been in the “extreme fear” zone (below 20) for over 20 days, the longest fear cycle since 2026. Notably, while this indicator remains at an extreme low, Bitcoin’s price has already broken through $72,000—an unusual divergence of extreme negative sentiment with price rebound. Historically, prolonged low levels of the fear/greed index are characteristic of market bottoms.

Macro Factors: Inflation and Geopolitical Pressures

On the macro front, U.S. March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year and 0.9% month-over-month, indicating inflation has cooled marginally but remains high. The market’s expectation of a 98.4% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in April continues to push back the rate cut window, with high real interest rates suppressing risk asset valuations.

Meanwhile, geopolitical events like the breakdown of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran cause intermittent shocks to Bitcoin. On April 12, Bitcoin briefly touched $73,800 before retreating, with short-term volatility remaining intense amid geopolitical risks and macro uncertainties.

Multiple Scenario Evolution: Two Paths, a Dividing Line

Based on on-chain cost bases, technical indicator states, and macro and sentiment factors, Bitcoin currently faces two clear evolution paths. The following is a logical projection based on existing data structures, not a definitive price forecast.

Scenario 1: Support at $69,000 Confirmed, Mid-term Bottom Formed

In this scenario, the key support at $69,000 (the previous cycle’s high) is effectively confirmed. Confirmation signals include: daily RSI breaking above 60, indicating bullish momentum recovery; daily MACD histogram continuing to expand in positive territory; price regaining the $73,000–$74,000 zone (former support turned resistance), forming the first trend reversal confirmation. If these conditions are met, the price could further test the $80,000–$84,000 cost basis cluster. This zone aligns with the real market mean and short-term holder cost basis, and a successful recovery would mean many short-term holders shift from unrealized losses to gains, removing the main selling pressure and greatly increasing the credibility of a trend reversal.

Scenario 2: Support at $69,000 Fails, Deepening Correction to Long-term Support

If $69,000 is effectively broken on a weekly close, it would constitute a major bearish confirmation. Trigger conditions include: weekly RSI falling below 30 and remaining low, similar to 2022 bear market features; daily MACD failing to produce a golden cross, with the indicator line falling back below zero. Under this path, prices would first drop toward around $65,000, then if that support fails, further decline toward the realized price near $54,000. Historically, the area near the realized price often marks the ultimate bottom of a bear market and a key accumulation zone for long-term investors.

The fate of $69,000 is the core observation point for mid-term Bitcoin direction. Holding this level supports a bullish outlook; breaking below on a weekly close requires re-evaluation of downside potential.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s current market structure exhibits a typical “pressure zone”—spot prices are caught between long-term support and multiple short-term resistances, with fierce battles over chips. On-chain cost bases show the realized price at $54,000 providing a solid safety cushion, while the $81,000–$88,000 range forms a cluster of resistance to overcome in the medium term. Technically, bearish momentum is waning, but bullish signals have yet to resonate effectively.

Against the backdrop of ongoing macro uncertainties and geopolitical disturbances, the importance of the $69,000 dividing line will be further amplified. Historical experience suggests that the most pessimistic market moments often coincide with the bottom zone, while the on-chain data’s structural features—price not falling below the network’s average cost, and long-term holders still accumulating—offer a relatively rational reference point at this stage.

For analysts focusing on on-chain signals, key variables to monitor include: the validity of the $69,000 support, confirmation signals from daily momentum indicators, and chip turnover near short-term holder cost bases. These factors will jointly determine the ultimate direction of Bitcoin’s current correction.