Shouchuang Futures: Aluminum oxide supply increases again, prices continue to come under downward pressure

Entering April, it is expected that Guangxi alumina will still have 3 million tons of production capacity released. At the same time, the 2.4 million-ton Guangtou Beihai alumina project that began operations in March is expected to reach full capacity in April, and supply expectations will increase significantly. Today, alumina continued to weaken, approaching 2,800 yuan, with a drop of more than 2%. If energy costs fall back, support for alumina will weaken, and alumina could fall to between 2,700 and 2,800 yuan. What can still be expected next is the introduction of Guinea’s production restriction policies; alumina may see a short-term rebound. However, purely from the perspective of supply and demand, in the short term, policy changes are unlikely to reverse the oversupply outlook—instead, it could be a good time for bears to enter the market. (First Capital Futures)