Analyzing how Noise's newly released Beta version can "hype up" on the blockchain?

Turning Attention into the Order Book: Noise Lets You “Trade Heat” On-Chain

Original Author: Eric

Original Source:

Reprint: Mars Finance

On April 1, 2026, Beijing time, Noise—the “Heat Prediction Market”—launched its Beta version and officially opened for trading. Users need to pay $5 in order to trade on the Beta version’s DApp, to prevent certain malicious behavior.

In January this year, Noise announced that it had completed a $7.1 million seed round led by Paradigm, with participation from Figment Capital, Anagram, GSR, and JPEG Trading. KaitoAI, a representative of the attention economy that had previously had its API cut off by X, also took part in the investment.

The meaning of “trading heat” has always been to deliberately manufacture buzz through various means, sparking attention in order to increase the exposure and discussion level of a given thing. But Noise has quantified “heat” into a number, allowing users to trade the rise and fall of that number. As Noise puts it, prediction markets are about “whether something will happen,” while Noise is about “how important something is right now.”

Heat Index Trading Platform

Noise’s mechanism is actually easy to explain: using Noise’s algorithm, it generates a heat index for a certain event or kind of cultural symbol. Users can predict whether the heat will rise or fall in the future, and then go long or go short.

There are only two things to note: first, how to trade; second, how this index is calculated.

Perhaps because it is in the testing stage, trading on the Noise platform does not directly use fiat currency or cryptocurrencies; instead, it requires using them to buy “credits” on the platform, and then using the credits to trade.

Fiat purchases support bank channels as well as Cash App and Amazon Pay. Crypto channels require transfers via MetaMask and Phantom. Currently, USDC payments on Ethereum and Solana are supported. The author did not find an entry point to exchange credits back for fiat or stablecoins—possibly because the Beta version only tests the trading engine and does not have settlement functions yet.

Taking a market with relatively high recent attention—“crude oil”—as an example, you can choose leverage from 1x to 5x to trade long or short. Currently, this market is one of the hottest markets on Noise’s Beta version, but the 24-hour trading volume is only a little over 200,000, with open interest valued at about 2 million, which converts to less than $20 million.

Although it is not displayed in the front end, Noise also uses an order book model. Unlike prediction markets, Noise’s trading market is more like perpetual cryptocurrency contracts: the oracle provides an index called the “mark price,” and the market automatically adjusts the balance between the market price and the mark price through funding rates.

As for the heat index we trade, Noise calls it the “Relevance Index.” Its data calculation is based on two sources: content and signals.

On the content side, Noise tracks the number of interactions, the number of posts, and the number of independent authors related to specific topics on X, Reddit, YouTube, Instagram, Substack, and RSS news sources. On the signals side, it comes from trading volume and market counts on Polymarket and Kalshi for related topics.

All sources and indicators’ smoothed values (to prevent short-term noise from affecting the results) are combined through weighted aggregation into a single comprehensive value—the index users trade. But Noise does not fully disclose the specific algorithm; most likely this is to prevent people from artificially boosting the “heat” of something by exploiting the algorithm’s mechanics, or from weakening a hot event’s heat by flooding it with large amounts of irrelevant information.

Interestingly, the author found on YouTube an experience video from Noise’s testnet one year ago. In April 2025, Noise’s index was still “Mindshare,” data ranging between 0 and 100. Until this February, a Forbes report on prediction markets still used this description.

Fresh Out of College Founders

Noise’s core founding team has three people, and all of them come from the University of Southern California. They are Luca Cordova Stuart, 22; David-Zhou, 26; and Gabriel Perez Carafa, 24.

Among them, Gabriel Perez Carafa had no work experience before Noise. Luca Cordova Stuart previously had an internship experience doing BD at LayerZero Labs. David Zhou, meanwhile, is almost unable to find any publicly available information.

None of the three co-founders of Noise has much in the way of standout credentials, which is quite similar to Kalshi when it first got started. The difference is that although Forbes categorizes Noise as a prediction market, these three young people do not agree. In the blog post they published when the Beta version launched, they wrote: “You may have seen someone compare Noise to prediction markets. We understand the reason for this comparison, but we do not share this view. Speculation is only one of many factors. Our goal is to build a platform that helps people understand and spread deeper stories about modern culture, lifestyles, changes in politics, and technology.”

From multiple articles Noise has published in the past, what it has consistently wanted to convey is: eliminate noise and gain real insight. Prediction markets provide the probability of something happening built with real money; what Noise wants to discuss is whether it is necessary to discuss “whether this will happen.”

What are the real use cases beyond speculation?

There is certainly speculation in any trading market—that goes without saying. The key question is: beyond speculation, what practical use cases does Noise have?

In a recent meeting, Lara, Kalshi’s co-founder, shared that markets predicting inflation on Kalshi have seen many orders in the tens of millions of dollars, and the sources of these orders are large enterprises using them to hedge the possible increase in wages that could result from a rebound in inflation. Noise here also presents a similar scenario: companies can use part of their marketing budget to short the marketing topics they are preparing, thereby hedging against the failure of the marketing strategy.

In addition, “heat” also has unique applications in trading of cryptocurrencies, stocks, and so on. According to Noise’s market about PUMP, when the heat is highest, it happens to be the high point when PUMP rebounds after the first wave of decline. For investors who believe in “buy where no one cares, and sell when the crowd is roaring,” Noise’s related markets may be a good reference and hedging channel.

Noise plans to launch the mainnet on Base in the coming months. At that time, the platform will be open to everyone and will support trading with real funds. From the author’s perspective, Noise’s idea is indeed quite novel and has real use cases. However, like prediction markets from over a decade ago, trading “heat” and “trends” may still be somewhat ahead of its time. That said, at least in a market where stablecoins and payment applications are dominating in the near term, Noise is arguably an asset you can potentially “farm” an air drop from.