Fidelity: This Bitcoin correction is milder than previous cycles, possibly reflecting a maturing market

Fidelity Digital Assets(Fidelity Digital Assets) states that compared to historical cycles, the current market correction for Bitcoin is significantly shallower. Research analyst Zack Wainwright pointed out that, based on historical data, Bitcoin's retracement after reaching new all-time highs has typically been deeper in past cycles, whereas this cycle's correction is about 50%, lower than previous rounds.
According to data cited by Cointelegraph, after Bitcoin's peak of approximately $126,000 in this cycle, it briefly fell to just above $60,000 on February 6, with a maximum decline of about 52%; currently, BTC price is still down roughly 46% from its peak. In contrast, in the previous cycle, Bitcoin dropped from a high of about $69,000 in 2021 to below $16,000 in November 2022, a total decline of approximately 77%.
Fidelity believes that this phenomenon of "diminishing returns" and "narrowing corrections" indicates that Bitcoin's cycle volatility may be weakening compared to the past. Nick Ruck, head of LVRG Research, said that shallower corrections could signify increased market maturity, reduced volatility, and reflect growing confidence among institutional investors. He also suggests that this change might support the narrative of Bitcoin evolving into a more stable store of value.
Meanwhile, the market is also paying attention to analysts' predictions based on historical cycle models, which suggest that the bottom of this cycle may occur between late September and early October 2026.