US Energy Independence Supports Bitcoin Market—Different Movements Under Geopolitical Tensions

On February 28, a conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel has marked a major turning point in the international crude oil market. Oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, raising concerns about severe inflationary pressures on the global economy. Interestingly, amid this market turmoil, Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, and its resilience seems linked to the unique energy environment in the U.S.

Geopolitical Conflict Pushes Oil Over $100, Why Is Bitcoin Stable?

The impact of the conflict has rippled through financial markets worldwide. Asian stock markets have taken a heavy hit, with Japan’s Nikkei down 10%, India’s Nifty index down 5%, and South Korea’s KOSPI dropping over 16%. Meanwhile, U.S. stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures have fallen just over 3%.

Amid these market fluctuations, Bitcoin has shown noteworthy behavior. Currently, BTC trades around $70,770 (as of March 24, 2026), up 4.10% in 24 hours. After hovering near $67,000 in early March immediately following the conflict, Bitcoin has gradually tested higher levels.

This stability is underpinned by the U.S.’s distinctive energy strategy. Citing a memo to clients, JP Morgan’s Executive Director Kriti Gupta and Global Investment Strategist Justin Byman note that “the U.S. does not have significant exposure to Iranian oil or broader Middle Eastern oil.”

Strengthening Ties with Wall Street—Bitcoin as a U.S. Risk Asset

The U.S.’s energy independence stems from diversified oil imports. The main sources are Canada and Mexico, which account for most of the imports, with only about 4% coming from Saudi Arabia. Notably, the U.S. has now established itself as the world’s largest net oil exporter.

This geopolitical advantage directly influences Bitcoin’s price formation. Once considered a “completely decentralized, borderless asset,” Bitcoin’s nature has shifted significantly in recent years. Since the introduction of U.S. physical ETFs, institutional investors have easier direct access, and Bitcoin increasingly correlates with Wall Street.

In fact, Bitcoin’s price movements now show a high correlation with the Nasdaq and tech stock indices. After President Donald Trump’s election in late 2024, markets began to price in deregulation and a crypto-friendly policy environment, accelerating this trend.

U.S. Energy Dominance Benefits Markets—Stock Price Gaps with Other Regions

As JP Morgan’s analysis points out, the fact that the U.S. is not dependent on Iranian or Middle Eastern crude oil creates relative strength in U.S. markets during international conflicts. Conversely, major Asian countries like China, India, and South Korea rely heavily on Strait of Hormuz oil supplies, exposing them to economic threats from conflict risks.

This geopolitical asymmetry significantly influences market pricing. As Bitcoin moves toward greater “U.S.-style” integration with Wall Street, the relative stability of U.S. stocks contrasts with the sluggishness of Asian markets, supporting Bitcoin’s price.

Prolonged Conflict and Inflationary Pressures—Impact on U.S. Consumers

However, the U.S.’s energy independence has its limits. JP Morgan emphasizes that “it does not mean Americans are completely insulated from rising gasoline prices.” Oil prices remain influenced by global supply trends, so even if the U.S. is less dependent on imports, global inflationary pressures persist.

That said, the U.S.’s high energy self-sufficiency provides some delay before inflation impacts reach gas stations. In other words, if the conflict ends quickly, the impact on U.S. consumers may be limited.

But if the conflict prolongs and oil prices stay high, this delay diminishes. Ultimately, rising inflation and consumer costs in the U.S. are unavoidable. This could worsen the market environment for risk assets like Bitcoin, which are closely tied to the U.S. economy.

XRP Downtrend Continues—Monitoring Key Support Levels

Market turmoil is affecting not only Bitcoin but other digital assets as well. Ripple (XRP) shows particularly weak movement, currently trading around $1.42 (as of March 24, 2026, up 1.87% in 24 hours).

After falling below the support level of $1.44 late last week, XRP declined about 2.6%. Trading volume during this period exceeded three times the daily average, indicating rising market anxiety.

Technically, XRP has remained within a broader downtrend since mid-2025, with lower highs. Recent attempts at a rebound failed within the $1.55–$1.60 range, showing weak upward pressure.

Traders should watch the critical support zone at $1.40. Falling below this could open risks of further declines toward $1.30–$1.32. Conversely, holding this support could lead to a rebound and retest around $1.44–$1.45. The long-term conflict and resulting market sentiment will play a significant role in shaping this technical environment.