Trump's Post Preceded by Unusual Betting on Polymarket; S&P and Crude Oil Futures Show Synchronized Abnormal Volume Surge

Mars Finance News: On March 24, Trump posted a statement saying that the U.S. and Iran had conducted “very good and productive discussions” to resolve the Middle East conflict. However, prior to this, the prediction market platform Polymarket already had 10 newly opened accounts heavily betting that a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran would occur by March 31 or April 15, with total bets of about $160,000. If a ceasefire is achieved before the end of the month, it could yield profits of over $1 million. After Trump’s post, these accounts’ unrealized gains have exceeded $300,000. One account had previously bet on U.S. strikes against Iran, profiting over $85,000, and now bets on a ceasefire. The scale, timing, and past performance of these bets have led outsiders to question whether these accounts are operated by insiders with access to undisclosed diplomatic information—people connected to U.S. and Iranian political circles who possess confidential diplomatic developments. Meanwhile, about 15 minutes before Trump’s statement, the S&P 500 E-mini futures and WTI crude oil futures experienced isolated abnormal volume spikes, despite no obvious market catalysts at the time. After the statement was released, the S&P 500 futures surged over 2.5% pre-market, while crude oil futures dropped nearly 6%. Anyone buying stock futures and shorting oil futures at that moment could have made huge profits within minutes. SEC and CME Group both declined to comment. On Monday, Polymarket announced an upgrade to its insider trading rules, explicitly banning trading based on stolen confidential information, illegal insider tips, and trading when users have the ability to influence event outcomes. (Jin10)