【Estrategia Institucional】Esperar pacientemente las oportunidades de rebote después de caídas abruptas

Central Securities believes that on Monday, the A-shares market opened lower and moved downward with wide fluctuations, with coal, nuclear power, and passenger cars performing relatively well during the session; precious metals, hotels and catering, tourism scenic spots, and components performed weaker. The current core restrictive factor in the market comes from overseas. If the Middle East conflict further escalates, it may trigger a sustained rise in oil prices, intensifying global stagflation pressure. If U.S. inflation continues to exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts or even raise interest rates again, putting pressure on global liquidity and risk appetite. Considering the further clarification of domestic macro policy tone, it provides a solid bottom support for the market. It is recommended to closely monitor macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy trends.

CaiXin Securities believes that on Monday, the overseas situation repeatedly suppressed risk appetite, and the A-shares large-cap index adjusted with increased volume. In the market, only the coal and oil & gas sectors performed relatively well due to energy crisis benefits; the rest of the sectors generally declined to varying degrees. Currently, from a technical perspective, the market is in an accelerated bottom-finding phase, and a cautious attitude should be maintained in the short term, mainly observing. After the market shows clear signs of stabilization, appropriate participation in market rebounds can be considered. For the short-term index to stabilize and recover, three signals should be focused on: first, whether there are signs of reversal and recovery in the overseas situation, with particular attention to the Strait of Hormuz traffic and international oil price trends; second, when the broad-based index ETFs will again significantly increase volume and show technical pattern recovery, as this may be a key signal for main funds to enter and bottom fish; third, the emergence of main themes that can boost market sentiment. In the medium term, under the continued “double easing” tone of fiscal and monetary policies, sustained inflow of residents’ savings assets into the market, improvements in listed companies’ performance driven by “anti-involution,” and ongoing breakthroughs in global AI technology, the foundation of this round of A-shares market remains solid. It is expected that the current Middle East conflict will only affect short-term market sentiment and rhythm, without changing the market direction. Confidence in the medium- and long-term positive trend remains, and excessive worry is not advisable.

Hualong Securities believes that on Monday, the A-shares market opened sharply lower due to the impact of the sluggish Asia-Pacific stock markets, with a brief rebound followed by continued decline. In the market, only the coal sector performed actively; precious metals concepts led the decline, and the tourism sector continued to adjust. After continuous adjustments, the risk in the market has been released towards the end, and it is not advisable to sell off at low levels in the short term. Patience should be maintained, waiting for a rebound opportunity after the sharp decline.