Cipher Mining (CIFR) Valuation Check After Strong Long Term Returns And Recent 30 Day Share Price Decline

Simply Wall St

Sat, February 14, 2026 at 7:16 PM GMT+9 3 min read

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CIFR

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Why Cipher Mining is on investors’ radar today

Cipher Mining (CIFR) has attracted attention after recent trading, with the stock closing at US$16.42 and showing mixed short term returns, including a small 1 day gain and a negative move over the past month.

See our latest analysis for Cipher Mining.

For context, the recent 1 day share price return of 1.99% and 7 day share price return of 11.47% sit against a 30 day share price return decline of 6.28%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 170.96% and a very large 3 year total shareholder return suggest earlier momentum has been strong, even if the year to date share price performance of 1.36% is more muted.

If Cipher Mining’s moves have caught your attention, you might also want to see what else is setting the sector alight with our screener of 17 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks.

With Cipher Mining posting strong long term returns but carrying a recent 30 day decline, and trading below the average analyst price target, the key question is whether there is still a buying opportunity here or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 38.5% Undervalued

On the most followed view, Cipher Mining’s fair value of $26.68 sits well above the last close at $16.42, which puts the focus squarely on what is driving that gap.

The analyst fair value estimate for Cipher Mining has edged down from US$27.25 to about US$26.68 as analysts factor in higher Street price targets tied to the Amazon Web Services AI infrastructure lease, along with emerging views on earnings visibility and valuation multiples in high density data centers.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how one long dated AI lease and a handful of high density data center assumptions can support such a premium to today’s price? The narrative leans heavily on aggressive revenue expansion, a meaningful shift in profit margins and a rich future earnings multiple to get there. If you want to see exactly how those moving parts line up, the full story is worth a closer read.

Result: Fair Value of $26.68 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, there are still clear pressure points, including reliance on Bitcoin linked revenue and the execution risk around large, long dated AI and HPC data center leases.

Find out about the key risks to this Cipher Mining narrative.

Another angle on valuation: pricing the growth story

The narrative argues Cipher Mining looks undervalued at a fair value of $26.68, but the current P/S of 31.4x tells a very different story. That is far above the US Software industry at 3.6x, peers at 18.5x, and a fair ratio of 7.5x that the market could eventually lean toward. If sentiment cools or expectations shift, how comfortable are you with that kind of valuation gap?

Story Continues  

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NasdaqGS:CIFR P/S Ratio as at Feb 2026

Build Your Own Cipher Mining Narrative

If this version of the story does not quite fit how you see Cipher Mining, you can review the same data and shape your own view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Cipher Mining research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include CIFR.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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