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The medium- and long-term logic of gold remains intact | China Construction Investment Macro · Zhou Junzhi Team
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（Source: CSC Research Macro Team）
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Since August 2025, long positions in gold have been crowded, and the market is almost unanimously bullish on gold.
Previously, we provided the following gold price outlook:
Short-term bullish, with a sentiment peak expected in Q1 2026.
Medium to short-term bearish, based on the logic that the rise of black assets will follow the Fed’s monetary tightening, impairing liquidity pricing of gold.
Medium to long-term bullish, because of the weakening of the US dollar’s status, especially the weakening of the technology pillar supporting the dollar.
Long-term bullish, due to the diminishing of great power conflicts and the significant rise of the RMB internationalization, which constitutes a systemic re-pricing for gold.
Looking back at the gold price trend, the rise in crude oil was driven by the Iran-U.S. war arriving earlier than expected, rather than an endogenous impossibility triangle within the US model, ultimately driven by fiscal policy. Besides, the gold price movement has not deviated from our framework.
How to view gold? Once liquidity shocks to gold prices subside, gold can resume its medium- and long-term logic.
Summary
This week’s performance of major global asset classes:
The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4,000 points to a new low for the year, with the ChiNext Index performing relatively strongly, reaching a 4-year intraday high; Hong Kong stocks continued to adjust, with the market expectations of Fed tightening converging, affecting various global assets; Chinese bond yields diverged, with short- and medium-term rates fluctuating mainly.
US stocks continued to weaken under three pressures: hawkish FOMC stance, global central banks collectively turning hawkish, and the ongoing escalation of the Iran war; US Treasury yields rose across the board.
Energy commodities remain supported by geopolitical risk premiums, but volatility has increased significantly. Precious metals declined due to changing rate expectations.
Chinese A-shares review:
A-shares: The Shanghai Index lost the 4,000 mark, hitting a new low for the year; ChiNext performed better, reaching a 4-year intraday high. Most sectors declined, with only communications and banking rising; non-ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals led the declines.
H-shares: Hong Kong stocks continued to adjust this week amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, high international oil prices, and increased risk aversion. Sector-wise, energy benefited from high oil prices, performing well. Gold plunged, and non-ferrous metals fell sharply; tech stocks also underperformed amid earnings pressure.
Outlook for Chinese stocks:
A-shares: Short-term risk appetite may continue to cool, as ongoing geopolitical conflicts suppress market sentiment. The bottoming process is not yet complete; patience is needed to see an effective market bottom. Significant trading volume increases will be key signals for stabilization. Under the stockpile game, rushing for rebounds is not advisable. Focus on three main themes: 1) risk aversion and resource sectors driven by geopolitical conflicts, such as coal and new energy; 2) sectors benefiting from energy price increases, including oil exploration, coal chemicals, and shipping; 3) opportunities arising from supply chain restructuring after energy prices rise.
H-shares: The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with high uncertainty. In the short term, Hong Kong markets will be affected by geopolitical factors and oil price volatility. If oil prices stay high and push inflation, it may impact Fed rate cuts, negatively affecting Hong Kong stocks. Maintain defensive allocations.
Bond market review:
Yields diverged this week, mainly fluctuating. Early-week decline driven by warming economic data and inflation expectations, followed by partial recovery supported by weak equity markets. Slightly loose liquidity helped medium- and short-term bonds perform better, while long- and ultra-long-term bonds remained weak. 2Y government bond yield fell 3.2bp to 1.31%; 10Y rose 1.4bp to 1.84%; 30Y increased 0.85bp to 2.3%.
Outlook for bonds:
Geopolitical tensions and rising inflation expectations support bond performance, but long- and ultra-long-term yields are unlikely to outperform recently. As the quarter-end approaches, short-term rates may rise due to tight liquidity.
Review:
US stocks weakened further under three pressures: hawkish FOMC, global hawkish turn, and Iran war escalation. As of Friday, the S&P 500 was at 6,506 points, down about 1.9% this week (roughly 7% from January high); Dow Jones at 45,577 (-2.1%); Nasdaq at 21,648 (-2.1%); Russell 2000 at 2,438 (-1.7%), entering correction territory (more than 10% below recent high). VIX oscillated between 22-27, closing at 26.78. The S&P 500 marked its fourth consecutive weekly decline, the longest since 2025.
Outlook:
Market pricing for Iran conflict remains more optimistic than US Treasuries. Historically, four major oil shocks saw median declines of -12% for the S&P 500, with peak-to-trough drops of -23%. Current decline is about 7%, leaving room for further downside if conflict persists. On Friday, Trump’s statement about “considering reducing Iran military actions” and Israel’s pledge not to attack energy facilities may ease tensions next week.
Weekly review:
US yields surged amid hawkish FOMC and global hawkish shift. As of Friday, 2Y, 10Y, and 30Y yields were 3.88%, 4.37%, and 4.93%, respectively, up about 17bp, 9bp, and 3bp from last week. The 10Y yield reached its highest since July 2025; 30Y approached 5%.
The yield curve shows a “bull flattening”: short-term yields rose more than long-term yields (2Y +18bp vs. 30Y +5bp), reflecting rising inflation expectations and diminishing rate cut expectations. The intra-week movement was non-linear: on Tuesday, signals of conflict easing (US Treasury allowing Iranian oil tankers through Hormuz, IEA releasing strategic reserves) caused the 10Y yield to dip to 4.20%; later, hawkish FOMC and global central banks drove yields higher.
Dollar index (DXY) showed a “rise then fall” pattern: hitting 100.5 (half-year high) Monday, then retreating to 99.5 by Friday, down about 0.9%. Despite oil-related “petrodollar” strength, hawkish global central banks (e.g., BoE’s 9-0 rate hold and ECB’s rate hike signals) weakened the euro and pound, pressuring the dollar.
Outlook for yields and FX:
US front-end yields are now pricing in hawkish scenarios at risk limits; further hawkish moves are limited. Financial conditions have tightened significantly, with rising rates and falling equities. Historically, such conditions often lead to lower yields later, but this cycle may differ due to systemic global rate increases from supply chain and energy disruptions.
Short-term (3 months), the dollar remains relatively strong, especially against energy-importing currencies. Medium-term (6-12 months), expect gradual dollar depreciation. If conflict persists and impacts growth, risk aversion will strengthen the yen and Swiss franc. Even currencies benefiting from high oil prices (AUD, CAD) may face pressure.
Next week’s focus: Iran situation after Trump’s “reduce military actions” statement, February PCE data, first oil release from SPR, further rate hike signals from BoE and ECB.
Weekly review:
Geopolitical risks continue to dominate commodities. Energy prices remain supported by risk premiums, but volatility has risen sharply. Precious metals declined due to rate expectations and dollar strength.
Specifically:
Gold: Suffered the largest weekly drop since 1983, with spot prices falling to around $4,500. Concerns over potential continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and hawkish Fed stance suppressed gold prices.
Oil: Experienced intense volatility, with Brent futures briefly surpassing $112/barrel. IEA announced a record release of 271.7 million barrels, but markets believe supply gaps remain.
Outlook:
Gold: Its safe-haven attributes are temporarily impaired; wait for clearer rate signals.
Oil: Market remains highly sensitive; geopolitical news can trigger sharp price swings.
Copper: Short-term focus on escalation of conflicts; risk appetite deterioration will weigh on copper.
Contents
Main Asset Class Performance
This week covers March 16-20, 2026.
(1) A-shares
Market experienced volatility and extreme sector divergence. The Shanghai Index fell below 4,000 points to a new low for the year; ChiNext performed relatively well, reaching a 4-year intraday high.
Monday: Market dipped then rebounded, with the index showing divergence. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.26%, briefly down over 1%; ChiNext rose 1.41%.
Tuesday: Market rallied then declined, with the Shanghai down 0.85%, ChiNext down 2.29%. Over 4,500 stocks declined, with significant loss effects.
Wednesday: Rebound again, growth sectors led, the Shanghai up 0.32%, ChiNext surged 2.02%. AI chip industry exploded; cyclical sectors like chemicals, oil & gas, lithium, agriculture, real estate, and coal underperformed.
Thursday: Volatile decline, Shanghai down 1.39%, breaching 4,000 again; ChiNext down 1.11%. Non-ferrous metals, fertilizers, petrochemicals, lithium, and rare earths led declines; over 4,900 stocks fell.
Friday: Market divergence reached extremes. Shanghai fell 1.24%, losing 4,000 points and hitting a new low for the year; ChiNext rose 1.30%, hitting a 4-year intraday high. Photovoltaic sector surged on Tesla procurement rumors; lithium battery chain performed well. Over 4,700 stocks declined overall.
This week: Shanghai down 3.38%, ChiNext up 1.26%, STAR Market (科创50) down 4.03%, CSI 300 down 2.19%, CSI 500 down 5.82%, CSI 1000 down 5.25%, CSI 2000 down 5.70%. Most sectors declined, only communications and banking rose; non-ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals led declines.
(2) Hong Kong stocks
Hong Kong stocks declined this week. Hang Seng Index fell 0.74% to 25,277.3 points; Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.48% to 4,872.38 points. The market was initially optimistic Monday, then declined sharply amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
The Iran-U.S. conflict escalated further, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Strait of Hormuz shipping remains halted, oil prices stay high, and risk aversion persists. The Fed’s new rate decision also affected markets, shifting focus from balancing employment and inflation to inflation control. On Friday, the market priced in a 50% chance of a rate hike in October, with a shift away from rate cut expectations, pressuring equities.
Sector-wise: Financials (+1.78%) and energy (+0.91%) performed well, driven by risk aversion and high oil prices. Materials and tech sectors underperformed, with materials down 11.26%, dragged by weak commodity prices, especially gold. Tech stocks, including Alibaba, showed sluggish earnings, with Q3 revenue growth slowing and net profit down 67% YoY, weighing on the sector.
(3) China bonds
Bond market diverged this week, yields fluctuated.
Early-week: Data showed economic recovery and inflation expectations rose, causing a correction. Later, weak equity markets supported bond prices. Slightly loose liquidity helped medium- and short-term bonds, while long-term bonds remained weak. 2Y yield fell 3.2bp to 1.31%; 10Y rose 1.4bp to 1.84%; 30Y increased 0.85bp to 2.3%.
Outlook:
Geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations support bonds, but long-term yields may stay subdued. As quarter-end approaches, short-term rates may rise due to tight liquidity.
(4) US stocks
Continued decline under hawkish FOMC, global hawkish shift, and Iran escalation.
As of Friday, S&P 500 at 6,506 (-1.9%), longest weekly decline since 2025. Russell 2000 entered correction territory.
Monday (3/16): After Iran drone attack, tensions persisted. Israel launched ground operations in Lebanon. Q4 GDP revised down to 0.7%, core PCE rose to 3.1%, consumer confidence dropped to 55.5, signaling stagflation. S&P down 0.61%.
Tuesday (3/17): Signs of de-escalation triggered rebound. US Treasury allowed Iranian oil tankers through Hormuz; IEA released strategic reserves. However, Iran attacked Dubai airport, Israel invaded Lebanon, indicating ongoing conflict.
Wednesday (3/18): Market volatile before FOMC. Iran increased attacks on Saudi oil facilities; Israel killed Iranian security official, conflict spread to more Middle East energy infrastructure.
Thursday (3/19): Hawkish FOMC decision caused risk asset sell-off, worst since December 2024. Fed kept rates at 3.50-3.75%, raised inflation forecast to 2.7%, no rate cuts expected this year. Powell emphasized “no rate cuts without inflation progress.” Iran attacked South Pars gas field and Qatar LNG station, oil hit $110. S&P down 1.36%, all sectors declined, VIX up 12.2% to 25.09.
Friday (3/20): Major central banks’ rate decisions triggered panic sell-off. ECB kept rates steady, inflation forecast raised to 2.6%; BoE maintained 3.75% with “ready to act.” S&P down 1.51%, DOW at 45,577, Nasdaq at 21,648, Russell at 2,438, entering correction. Israel pledged no further energy facility attacks; Trump considered “reducing” Iran operations, easing tensions.
(5) Overseas interest rates
US yields surged sharply amid hawkish FOMC and global hawkish turn.
As of Friday, 2Y, 10Y, and 30Y yields at 3.88%, 4.37%, and 4.93%, respectively, up about 17bp, 9bp, and 3bp from last week. The 10Y yield hit highest since July 2025; 30Y approached 5%.
Yield curve shows “bull flattening”: short-term yields rose more than long-term yields, reflecting inflation expectations and diminishing rate cut hopes. Intra-week, yields dipped on Tuesday due to conflict easing signals, then surged after FOMC.
Dollar index (DXY): rose to 100.5 early week, then fell to 99.5 by Friday, down 0.9%. Despite oil-related strength, hawkish global central banks (e.g., BoE, ECB) weakened euro and pound, pressuring dollar.
Outlook:
Front-end yields are now pricing in hawkish scenarios at risk limits; further moves are limited. Financial conditions have tightened significantly. Historically, such conditions often lead to yield declines later, but systemic global rate increases may alter this pattern.
Short-term (3 months): dollar remains strong, especially against energy-importing currencies. Medium-term (6-12 months): gradual depreciation expected. If conflict persists and impacts growth, risk aversion will strengthen yen and Swiss franc. Currencies benefiting from high oil prices (AUD, CAD) may face pressure.
Next week’s focus: Iran situation after Trump’s “reduce military actions” statement, February PCE data, first oil release from SPR, further rate hike signals from BoE and ECB.
Weekly review:
Geopolitical risks dominate commodities. Energy prices remain supported, but volatility has risen sharply. Precious metals declined due to rate expectations and dollar strength.
Specifically:
Gold: Largest weekly drop since 1983, spot prices briefly around $4,500. Concerns over continued Strait of Hormuz blockade and hawkish Fed suppressed prices.
Oil: Volatile, Brent briefly over $112/barrel. IEA record release of 271.7 million barrels, but supply gaps remain.
Outlook:
Gold: Safe-haven attributes temporarily impaired; wait for clearer rate signals.
Oil: Highly sensitive to geopolitical news; sharp reactions possible.
Copper: Focus on conflict escalation; risk appetite deterioration weighs on prices.
Contents
Major Asset Class Performance
This week (March 16-20, 2026).
(1) A-shares
Market experienced volatility and sector divergence. The Shanghai Index fell below 4,000 points to a new low; ChiNext performed well, reaching a 4-year intraday high.
Monday: Market dipped then rebounded, divergence evident. Shanghai down 0.26%, briefly over 1% decline; ChiNext up 1.41%.
Tuesday: Rally then decline, Shanghai down 0.85%, ChiNext down 2.29%. Over 4,500 stocks declined, significant loss effect.
Wednesday: Rebound, growth sectors led, Shanghai up 0.32%, ChiNext surged 2.02%. AI chip industry exploded; cyclicals like chemicals, oil & gas, lithium, agriculture, real estate, and coal underperformed.
Thursday: Volatile decline, Shanghai down 1.39%, breaching 4,000; ChiNext down 1.11%. Non-ferrous metals, fertilizers, petrochemicals, lithium, and rare earths led declines; over 4,900 stocks fell.
Friday: Divergence peaked, Shanghai down 1.24%, losing 4,000 points and hitting a new low; ChiNext up 1.30%, hitting a 4-year intraday high. Photovoltaic sector surged on Tesla procurement rumors; lithium battery chain performed well. Over 4,700 stocks declined overall.
This week: Shanghai down 3.38%, ChiNext up 1.26%, STAR Market down 4.03%, CSI 300 down 2.19%, CSI 500 down 5.82%, CSI 1000 down 5.25%, CSI 2000 down 5.70%. Most sectors declined, only communications and banking rose; non-ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals led declines.
(2) Hong Kong stocks
Hong Kong stocks declined this week. Hang Seng Index fell 0.74% to 25,277.3 points; Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.48% to 4,872.38 points. The market was initially optimistic Monday, then declined sharply amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
The Iran-U.S. conflict escalated further, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Strait of Hormuz shipping remains halted, oil prices stay high, and risk aversion persists. The Fed’s new rate decision also affected markets, shifting focus from balancing employment and inflation to inflation control. On Friday, the market priced in a 50% chance of a rate hike in October, with a shift away from rate cut expectations, pressuring equities.
Sector-wise: Financials (+1.78%) and energy (+0.91%) performed well, driven by risk aversion and high oil prices. Materials and tech sectors underperformed, with materials down 11.26%, dragged by weak commodity prices, especially gold. Tech stocks, including Alibaba, showed sluggish earnings, with Q3 revenue growth slowing and net profit down 67% YoY, weighing on the sector.
(3) China bonds
Bond market diverged this week, yields fluctuated.
Early-week: Data showed economic recovery and inflation expectations rose, causing a correction. Later, weak equity markets supported bond prices. Slightly loose liquidity helped medium- and short-term bonds, while long-term bonds remained weak. 2Y yield fell 3.2bp to 1.31%; 10Y rose 1.4bp to 1.84%; 30Y increased 0.85bp to 2.3%.
Outlook:
Geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations support bonds, but long-term yields may stay subdued. As quarter-end approaches, short-term rates may rise due to tight liquidity.
(4) US stocks
Continued decline under hawkish FOMC, global hawkish shift, and Iran escalation.
As of Friday, S&P 500 at 6,506 (-1.9%), longest weekly decline since 2025. Russell 2000 entered correction territory.
Monday (3/16): After Iran drone attack, tensions persisted. Israel launched ground operations in Lebanon. Q4 GDP revised down to 0.7%, core PCE rose to 3.1%, consumer confidence dropped to 55.5, signaling stagflation. S&P down 0.61%.
Tuesday (3/17): Signs of de-escalation triggered rebound. US Treasury allowed Iranian oil tankers through Hormuz; IEA released strategic reserves. However, Iran attacked Dubai airport, Israel invaded Lebanon, indicating ongoing conflict.
Wednesday (3/18): Market volatile before FOMC. Iran increased attacks on Saudi oil facilities; Israel killed Iranian security official, conflict spread to more Middle East energy infrastructure.
Thursday (3/19): Hawkish FOMC decision caused risk asset sell-off, worst since December 2024. Fed kept rates at 3.50-3.75%, raised inflation forecast to 2.7%, no rate cuts expected this year. Powell emphasized “no rate cuts without inflation progress.” Iran attacked South Pars gas field and Qatar LNG station, oil hit $110. S&P down 1.36%, all sectors declined, VIX up 12.2% to 25.09.
Friday (3/20): Major central banks’ rate decisions triggered panic sell-off. ECB kept rates steady, inflation forecast raised to 2.6%; BoE maintained 3.75% with “ready to act.” S&P down 1.51%, DOW at 45,577, Nasdaq at 21,648, Russell at 2,438, entering correction. Israel pledged no further energy facility attacks; Trump considered “reducing” Iran operations, easing tensions.
(5) Overseas interest rates
US yields surged sharply amid hawkish FOMC and global hawkish turn.
As of Friday, 2Y, 10Y, and 30Y yields at 3.88%, 4.37%, and 4.93%, respectively, up about 17bp, 9bp, and 3bp from last week. The 10Y yield reached its highest since July 2025; 30Y approached 5%.
The yield curve shows a “bull flattening”: short-term yields rose more than long-term yields, reflecting rising inflation expectations and diminishing rate cut hopes. The intra-week movement was non-linear: on Tuesday, signals of conflict easing (US Treasury allowing Iranian oil tankers through Hormuz, IEA releasing strategic reserves) caused the 10Y yield to dip to 4.20%; later, hawkish FOMC and global central banks drove yields higher.
Dollar index (DXY): rose to 100.5 early week, then fell to 99.5 by Friday, down 0.9%. Despite oil-related strength, hawkish global central banks (e.g., BoE, ECB) weakened euro and pound, pressuring the dollar.
Outlook:
Front-end yields are now pricing in hawkish scenarios at risk limits; further moves are limited. Financial conditions have tightened significantly. Historically, such conditions often lead to yield declines later, but systemic global rate increases may alter this pattern.
Short-term (3 months): dollar remains strong, especially against energy-importing currencies. Medium-term (6-12 months): gradual depreciation expected. If conflict persists and impacts growth, risk aversion will strengthen yen and Swiss franc. Currencies benefiting from high oil prices (AUD, CAD) may face pressure.
Next week’s focus: Iran situation after Trump’s “reduce military actions” statement, February PCE data, first oil release from SPR, further rate hike signals from BoE and ECB.
Gold: Spot gold broke below $4,500.
This week, gold experienced its largest weekly decline since 1983, with spot prices briefly around $4,500.
This abnormal phenomenon is due to re-pricing of rate expectations, soaring oil prices boosting inflation expectations, and markets delaying Fed rate cuts. CME FedWatch shows less than 50% chance of rate cuts by December 2026.
London spot gold closed at $4,491.67/oz, down 10.49%.
Oil: Geopolitical supply shocks.
This week, oil markets saw intense volatility. Brent futures briefly exceeded $112/barrel. IEA announced a record release of 271.7 million barrels, but supply gaps remain.
The Strait of Hormuz saw about 10% of oil trade halted; roughly one-fifth of global oil transportation affected.
Major Middle Eastern producers cut output: Iraq by about 2.9 million barrels/day (67% loss), Saudi Arabia by 2-2.5 million barrels/day (20-25%), UAE by 0.5-0.8 million barrels/day, Kuwait by 0.5 million barrels/day.
Despite the IEA’s record release, the market believes supply gaps persist.
Brent closed at $104.41/barrel, up 5.25%.
Copper: Significant decline.
Early-week stable, then risk aversion surged after geopolitical risks intensified. Concerns over inflation and recession led to broad risk asset declines, with copper, a cyclical commodity, leading the drop. Prices fell sharply from high levels.
Fundamentals: Global copper stocks increased by about 25,000 tons to 1.372 million tons, indicating continued inventory pressure. Despite some inventory reduction in China’s social stocks (down 525 tons to 310,000 tons), the overall inventory trend remains uncertain.
LME copper closed at $11,834.73/ton, down 6.65%.
Domestic ferrous metals: Cost support from iron ore and energy prices.
Cost-side: Geopolitical conflicts drive price volatility. Iran and Hormuz tensions support coal and coke markets. Domestic coal mines are recovering quickly, with high throughput at Mongolian ports, ensuring sufficient supply. Iron ore prices remain high, supported by increased shipping costs due to Hormuz blockade.
Rebar: Supply and demand both increased, but demand improvement is limited. In the third week of March, rebar output increased 4.1% MoM, consumption up 17.7%, inventories down 0.5%. Steel mill profit margins rose to 41%, but real estate and infrastructure orders remain weak, and liquidity is tight.
Rebar closed at 3,132.45 yuan/ton, down 0.55%.
(1) Central bank liquidity injections
This week, the PBOC conducted 1,765 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 6,000 billion yuan of MLF maturing. Total net liquidity injection was 2,158 billion yuan. The average DR007 rate was between 1.42-1.45%, down 2.32bp to 1.43%.
(2) A-share market liquidity
Trading was active, with average daily turnover of 2.2 trillion yuan, down from the previous week.
New fund issuance (equity + hybrid) totaled 11.73 billion yuan, slightly lower than last week.
High-frequency export data for the second week of March remained robust, with South Korea’s electronics exports performing strongly.
Exports in the second week of March (3/9-3/15): container throughput at Chinese ports was 6.598 million TEUs (+11.08% YoY); cargo throughput was 256 million tons (+2.26% YoY).
Freight indices: CCFI West Coast route index was 823.77 points (slight increase); Shanghai export container freight index (SCFI) was 2,054 points (slight decrease); CCFI Europe route index was 1,444.87 points (slight decrease).
South Korea’s top 10 exports in March showed high growth: +55.6% YoY, rebounding from +44.3% last month; semiconductors up 175.88% YoY; autos and parts up 13.4% YoY.
Vietnam’s February imports weakened: +4.42% YoY, down from +45.45%. Imports of textiles and raw materials declined further (-11.78% YoY), while electronics imports grew 21.47% YoY.
Overseas: Iran situation after Trump’s “reduce military actions” statement, February PCE data, first oil release from SPR, further rate hike signals from BoE and ECB.
Domestic: February-March industrial profits data and PMI figures.
Consumer recovery remains uncertain. Although residents’ consumption has started to recover this year, it has not yet returned to pre-pandemic normal growth. Continued weakness could weaken economic growth momentum.
Real estate sector outlook remains uncertain. The current downturn has lasted long; some signs of short-term recovery are visible, but many indicators are still negative. Future trends depend on further data.
The impact of tightening monetary policy in Europe and the US may be more significant than expected, potentially dragging down global growth and asset prices.
Geopolitical conflicts remain uncertain, posing risks to global economic outlook and market sentiment.
Research report title: “Long-term Gold Logic Intact — Weekly View on Major Global Asset Classes (96)”
Release date: March 22, 2026
Published by: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.
Authors: Zhou Junzhi (Certificate No.: S1440524020001), Chen Yi (Certificate No.: S1440524030001)
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