Market Close: All Three Major Indices Fall Over 3%, Beijing 50 Index Falls Over 5%, Nearly 5,200 Stocks Decline

Special Topic: Limited Downside Space for A-shares, Decision-Making in April

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On March 23, the market closed lower, with all three major indices falling over 3%, and the CSI 50 Index dropping more than 5%. In terms of sectors, coal stocks led gains, with Yunmei Energy and Liaoning Energy hitting daily limit-ups; oil and gas stocks were active, with Bomaike hitting the limit-up; on the downside, tourism stocks declined further in the afternoon, with Sanxia Tourism, Guilin Tourism, and Lingnan Holdings hitting the limit-down; precious metals weakened throughout the day, with Chifeng Gold and Sichuan Gold hitting the limit-down; the breeding industry also declined, with Biological Shares hitting the limit-down; in the afternoon, bank stocks continued to fall, with Qingnong Commercial Bank leading the decline. Overall, nearly 5,200 stocks in the two markets declined.

At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3,813.28 points, down 3.63%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13,345.51 points, down 3.76%; and the ChiNext Index was at 3,235.22 points, down 3.49%.

Market-wise, coal mining and processing, oil and gas extraction and services sectors led gains; precious metals, tourism and hotels, components, and rail transit equipment sectors declined the most.

Hot Sector Highlights:

1. Coal

CITIC Securities released a research report stating that the Middle East geopolitical conflict has lasted over three weeks, and the rise in international oil and gas prices indicates sustained momentum. Although short-term demand for thermal coal faces seasonal decline, chemical coal demand may continue to grow, supporting a rebound in coal prices; coking coal prices are also expected to rise amid short-term demand improvement. With overseas factors supporting, the outlook for domestic coal prices is optimistic, with potential for continued growth. The recommendation includes companies with coal chemical operations, those with relatively attractive valuations, and companies with overseas coal resource layouts.

2. Oil and Gas

Due to prolonged disruptions in transportation through the Strait of Hormuz and increasing structural concerns over global supply concentration, Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for 2026, bullish on the oil and energy sectors. The bank emphasizes that persistent inflation pressures could support commodity-related currencies and intensify market concerns over central bank policies.

News Highlights:

【Gold and Silver Drop】 Spot gold fell below $4,200 per ounce, down 6.5% intraday. COMEX silver futures plunged 11%, briefly touching $61.64 per ounce.

【US Considering Ground Action to Seize Iran’s Halek Island】 According to Israeli reports on the 23rd, US officials recently informed Israel and other countries that the US “may have no choice” but to launch a ground military operation against Iran’s Halek Island. Sources say the US military is accelerating deployment of thousands of Marines and naval personnel to the Middle East, including the amphibious assault ship “Brawler,” the amphibious transport dock “Portland,” and the dock landing ship “Kinston,” carrying about 4,500 Marines and other combat personnel. President Trump on the 15th threatened that the US is ready to strike Halek Island again and may further target Iran’s oil infrastructure. Halek Island, located northwest of the Persian Gulf about 25 km from Iran’s coast, is approximately 6 km long and 3 km wide, and is Iran’s largest crude oil export base, with 90% of Iran’s oil exports passing through here.

【Alibaba Developing “Shrimp Farming” PC and Mainframe Hardware】 AI-powered “shrimp farming” has become a popular track in the AI community. As this technology gains attention, domestic internet companies are entering the field and launching their own products. On March 13, Alibaba launched JVS Claw, formerly known as “Shadowless JVS,” becoming Alibaba’s version of OpenClaw. Sources say Alibaba plans to release hardware products like JVS Book (notebook terminal) and JVS Box (mini mainframe). The notebook targets mobile office, built on a similar architecture to OpenClaw and deeply integrated with the JVS Claw platform; JVS Box is aimed at desktop office, serving as a desktop AI agent workstation, also based on a similar architecture. These hardware products are led by Alibaba Cloud’s Shadowless team, aiming to extend from software platforms to hardware terminals to create a complete AI agent experience.

Institutional Views:

Industrial Securities analysts Zhang Qiyao and Hu Siyu believe that recent market adjustments mainly stem from two concerns: first, the risk of “stagflation,” and second, the risk of “escalating conflicts out of control.” Both may not be the final outcome of this round of conflicts. In the short term, escalation of conflicts could create opportunities for de-escalation, meaning market rebounds often occur when sentiment is most pessimistic. In the medium to long term, “stagflation” might be the most pessimistic scenario for the economy, but not necessarily the baseline; the current market’s pessimistic expectations are largely priced in, laying a foundation for medium- to long-term recovery.

Galaxy Securities analysts Yang Chao and Wang Xueying believe that the duration and evolution of geopolitical conflicts remain highly uncertain, and short-term disruptions to global risk assets are unlikely to subside soon. They expect global equity markets to remain highly volatile. However, supported by domestic logic, the downside for A-shares is relatively limited, and the market is likely to digest external pressures through oscillation, structural rotation. Regarding structure, market focus remains on inflation dynamics, and changes in crude oil prices under geopolitical conflicts will continue to be key variables influencing recent market structure.