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Trump TACO'd again. Should the market believe it this time?
On March 23, 2026, President Trump announced a five-day suspension of military strikes against Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure, claiming that there had been a “very good and productive dialogue” between the US and Iran — but Iran sharply denied this. This move caused oil prices to plummet 11% and the stock market to surge.
The “TACO trade” (buying stocks after Trump’s threats cause market drops, then selling once he inevitably backs down) has yielded a 12% return since February 2025.
This rollercoaster in the market once again seems to confirm this “pattern.”
However, this time, it’s a TACO that may not be easily realized…