CITIC Securities: Power shortages remain the main theme for the year; confidently optimistic about the gas turbine industry chain

CITIC Construction Investment Research reports that power shortages remain the main theme throughout the year, and remains optimistic about the gas turbine industry chain. According to CITIC Construction Investment estimates, global demand for gas turbines will exceed 120GW by 2028, with an expected global supply of about 90GW, and the gap continuing to widen. The outlook for the gas turbine industry chain and trends such as ship fuel conversion remain positive.

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CITIC Construction Investment: Yushu Technology IPO Accepted, AIDC Power Generation Equipment Continues to Benefit from North American Power Shortages

1. Humanoid Robots: The sector is gradually entering the allocation range, with Yushu IPO and Tesla V3 both poised for launch. (2) AIDC Power Generation Equipment: Power shortages remain the main theme throughout the year, with a firm outlook on the gas turbine industry chain. (3) Construction Machinery: High export growth in January-February, optimistic about Q1 performance. (4) Semiconductor Equipment: SEMICON is upcoming, with companies set to release new products, potentially catalyzing sector performance. (5) Solid-State Battery Equipment: Automakers have clarified full solid-state vehicle installation plans, awaiting equipment tendering to catalyze.

Humanoid Robots: The sector is gradually entering the allocation range, with Yushu IPO and Tesla V3 both poised for launch. Domestically, the Chinese New Year Gala sparked increased attention on domestic robots, showcasing excellent control and operational capabilities. 2026 is expected to be a major year for humanoid applications. Meanwhile, IPOs of domestic robot companies like Yushu are progressing, with core products highly valuable and close to end customers. They hold a prominent position in the industry chain, with strong branding. These manufacturers may see valuation reassessment, and investors should focus on related supply chains. Overseas, Tesla’s Optimus 3 will start production this summer, following an S-curve ramp-up, with high output expected next year. The Optimus series continues to be updated, further expanding product applications and targeting the consumer market.

AIDC Power Generation Equipment: Power shortages remain the main theme throughout the year, with a firm outlook on the gas turbine industry chain. Our estimates suggest that global demand for gas turbines will exceed 120GW by 2028, with an expected supply of about 90GW, and the gap continuing to widen. The trend of ship fuel conversion and related sectors remains positive.

Construction Machinery: High export growth in January-February, with expectations of strong Q1 performance. From January to February 2026, excavator sales totaled 35,934 units, up 13.1% year-over-year. Domestic sales were 15,478 units, down 9.19%; exports were 20,456 units, up 38.8%. Domestic sales declined slightly year-over-year, but exports performed strongly. As a major contributor to performance, OEMs are expected to see high growth in Q1. Overall, we expect the domestic market to grow over 10% in 2026, with exports increasing over 15%, driven by sustained internal and external demand.

Semiconductor Equipment: SEMICON exhibition is upcoming, with new product launches expected to catalyze the sector. Regarding capacity expansion, capital expenditure at fab plants is expected to continue rising in 2026, especially in storage, with advanced logic maintaining strong performance. Localization efforts are accelerating, with downstream companies validating and adopting domestically produced equipment, especially in modules and components. The overall sector fundamentals are positive, emphasizing the importance of “de-Asianization.”

Lithium Battery Equipment: Automakers have clarified full solid-state vehicle installation plans, awaiting equipment tenders to catalyze. The industrialization of solid-state batteries has made significant progress, with major companies announcing successful production and installation plans, attracting considerable attention. The sector is currently in a “bullish zone,” with leading battery manufacturers initiating GWh-scale solid-state battery equipment tenders, aiming for small batch demonstrations by 2027 and large-scale mass production by 2030. The timing for equipment orders and performance release is opening, with industry chain prices and volumes expected to rise. The outlook for solid-state battery sector allocation remains positive.

Forklifts & Mobile Robots: Expected double growth in domestic and export forklift sales in January-February, with a positive outlook for smart logistics-related business expansion. Leading companies are actively deploying intelligent logistics and driverless forklifts. By Q4 2025, products related to embodied intelligence in logistics have been launched, with “unmanned” solutions expected to rapidly scale.

(1) Risks from domestic macroeconomic fluctuations: Machinery is a typical midstream capital goods industry, closely linked to macroeconomic conditions. Major shifts in domestic macro policies could impact overall demand in the machinery sector.

(2) Risks from overseas market fluctuations: Chinese companies expanding abroad may face various frictions. Whether these are temporary setbacks or new trends will require careful judgment.

(3) Risks from slower-than-expected downstream capacity expansion: If downstream industries do not expand as anticipated, equipment demand may decline, adversely affecting orders and performance of industry companies.

(Source: People’s Financial News)