Goldman Sachs raises the probability of U.S. economic recession to 30%

CycleProphet · 2026-03-24T00:13:59+00:00

Goldman Sachs predicts that due to rising energy prices and Middle East conflicts, the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months has risen to 30%. It expects the unemployment rate to reach 4.6% by year-end, with GDP growth in the second half of the year falling below trend, and annualized growth between 1.25%-1.75%. Meanwhile, it has raised its oil price forecast for the year and warned that global inflation will rise.

CycleProphet

2026-03-24 00:13:59

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Deep Tide TechFlow News, March 24 — According to Jin10 Data, Goldman Sachs stated that due to soaring oil and natural gas prices, the probability of a recession in the U.S. economy over the next 12 months has increased to 30%, up 5 percentage points from previous expectations. The energy price shock, combined with tightening financial conditions caused by Middle East conflicts, and the diminishing effects of major tax law changes passed by President Trump last summer, prompted Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hozus to raise their baseline forecast for the unemployment rate at the end of the year to 4.6%. Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and December. The bank also forecasts that U.S. GDP growth in the second half of this year will be below trend, with an annualized growth rate between 1.25% and 1.75%. Due to ongoing disruptions in energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs earlier on Monday raised its oil price forecast for this year. The bank stated that this conflict will push up global inflation and reduce global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points, but in the worst-case scenario, the impact on GDP could double or even triple.

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