March 24 Member Morning Brief: Trump Last-Minute TACO, Market "Trust First"

1. 【Trump’s Last-Minute TACO Iran “Chase”】After claiming to have “productive talks” with the Iranian regime, Trump delayed strikes on Iranian power plants. However, Iran repeatedly denied any negotiations with the U.S… On Saturday, the U.S. president issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding full opening of the Strait of Hormuz, or he will “destroy” Iran’s energy infrastructure. Iran threatened to retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz and laying mines in all Gulf-bound shipping lanes. As a result, Asian stock markets initially plunged, but Trump tweeted early in the morning, two hours before the U.S. markets opened, helping stocks rebound sharply.

2. 【Market “Respectfully First”】Stocks rose following a Trump TRUTH tweet. In the U.S., the S&P 500 closed up over 1.1%, and the Nasdaq gained nearly 1.4%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 recovered most of its losses for the day, closing down only about 0.2%, while the STOXX 600 rose 0.6%. Meanwhile, oil prices declined: Brent crude fell about 10%, to around $100 per barrel.

3. 【Israel Completely Opposes】Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said Trump “notified” him of the possibility of an agreement with Iran that would “protect our vital interests,” but he also added that Israel will continue to strike Iran and Lebanon. Earlier, the Israeli military claimed to have attacked several Iranian terror regime headquarters in Tehran, including one belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Commentary: Trump’s ultimate goal is “promoting talks and avoiding war”—using maximum pressure to secure an agreement that guarantees Gulf shipping safety, stabilizes oil prices, and boosts his political leverage. He is keen to prevent the U.S. from being dragged into another costly Middle East quagmire. However, Israel’s absolute demand is to “eliminate existential threats.” For the U.S., Iran is a negotiable geopolitical opponent; for Israel, Iran is a Damocles sword hanging overhead. Netanyahu’s clear stance of “continuing strikes” essentially draws a red line in Washington: U.S. political agreements cannot constrain Israel’s military actions. By escalating military conflict intensity, Israel aims to force the U.S. to align with its military agenda, ensuring that any agreement not involving the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear capability and proxy networks cannot be successfully implemented.

4. 【Japan Considers Intervention in Oil Futures】According to Reuters on Monday, market sources revealed that amid the Middle East crisis driving energy prices sharply higher, the Japanese government is evaluating the feasibility of intervening in the crude oil futures market. Insiders said relevant agencies have begun inquiries into specific methods of market intervention.

5. 【Chicago Fed President Signals Rate Hike】Chicago Fed President Goolsbee cautiously but clearly stated in an interview, “If inflation performs well, we might return to a environment of multiple rate cuts within the year,” he said, “but if the opposite occurs and inflation spirals out of control, I can also envision scenarios where we need to raise rates.” This marks a subtle shift in the Fed officials’ public stance—previously, their comments mainly focused on the “pace of rate cuts,” rather than considering rate hikes.