March 23 Review: Is 3800 the bottom or just the beginning?

Brothers, today I want to do a thorough review. Opportunities like this big drop in the market don’t come around often in a year. Once you understand and analyze it thoroughly, you can avoid mistakes in the future. Starting today’s review:

The main index: 3813 points, down 3.63%, trading volume: 2.44 trillion, an increase of 140 billion. 3400 companies fell more than 5%. The number of rising and falling stocks: 300:5100; up and down limit hits: 38:133. This decline is the expected intensity for this round of downturn. At least Damocles’ sword has fallen more than half. Most likely, 3800 is not the bottom. From the chart, the market closed below 3800, barely recovered to 3800, with a volume spike and a solid bearish candle. Tomorrow is likely to see further decline. Not sure if it will drop to 3600 or 3500; we can only watch as it unfolds. Like individual stocks, the overall trend is downward. No chasing highs during the decline; wait until the trend clarifies before acting. However, tonight Trump’s words eased the Middle East situation directly, oil prices plunged by over ten points, and US stocks opened 2% higher. Under these circumstances, A-shares are very likely to open higher tomorrow. But regardless of whether it opens high or low, don’t chase the top or bottom. The two-day trend is not clear.

Now, let’s look at the weekly and monthly charts. The past three weeks have all seen volume-driven declines. February also saw volume-driven drops, with support levels all broken. High-volume declines with big bearish candles. Who dares to buy the bottom? Just buy if you dare. From the chart, this decline has just begun. Compared to the tariff war market on April 8, the single-day drop was even more exaggerated. But in the first three weeks, it was a volume-contracted correction. April’s volume was even lower than before, forming a long-legged candle. These two scenarios are very different. That kind of decline was driven by panic and was not at a high level. From 3300 to 3000, it was the second deep correction in the early stage of a bull market.

In summary, whether tomorrow opens high, flat, or low, do not chase the top or bottom. Don’t rush into the market. No one knows if the risks have been fully released. The unknown risks outweigh the known opportunities, so avoid trading. This current trend is very dangerous. In January, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices’ national team invested several trillion yuan. Now, after three weeks of volume-driven decline, the weekly and daily K-lines still look like trap lines. If you try to bottom fish now, you’re just throwing money in. If you buy the bottom tomorrow and make 5% or 10%, then sell the next day, I’ll say you’re impressive. But in the short term, risks have not been fully released. Once the big players exit, they want to buy chips as cheaply as possible. If they can’t push the market down, it can’t rebound either.

Section 2: Sectors. Although the market dropped sharply today, some core stocks in certain sectors performed well: computing power, electricity, photovoltaics, batteries, and robotics.

1. Robotics: Yu Shu IPO application has been accepted. It’s likely to go public this year. Wolong, Jinfang, and others hit the daily limit today.

2. Computing Power: The sector rebounded. Leader Meili Yun opened high in bidding and closed in the green. Strong stocks include Risconda and Qunxing Toys. Previously, short-term bought Electric Light did not see volume, but its trend is stable—this is strong.

3. Electricity: The sector performed well, with high-standard 6-board success, volume contraction, no limit hits all day, very strong. Large-cap stocks can close in the green. Power Construction stopped falling; previously, Lixin New Energy hit the daily limit. The sector also showed excellent performance today.

4. Photovoltaics: Tesla is sourcing Chinese PV products, indicating space PV is serious. The sector opened low and rose, dragged down by the market. GCL System Integration, Chint Energy.

5. Batteries: Energy storage demand and power shortages. Large-cap stocks like BYD opened low and closed higher, with about 4% gain. Also, Haike Xinyuan, Huabao New Energy.

Section 3: Individual stocks. Last night, I saw that the US-Iran conflict might escalate. Early trading saw sharp declines in Japan and Korea. The market opened down 1%. I decisively sold all my stocks in bidding, effectively missing out on profit this month. Let’s wait and see, avoid this decline. It’s a pity I sold three stocks early: Electric Light Technology rose a few points in the morning; Zeyu also rose 8 points; Yuhuan approached red territory. If I had sold half an hour later, I might have made a few thousand more. But that’s just talk. Today was a very good selling point. Although I sold early, I’m happy because I made the right call. Since I’ve exited, I won’t re-enter this week. I’ll observe for a few days. These days I’m busy and can’t watch the market much. That’s all for now. You can analyze word by word, look at the market trend, and compare it with the previous bull markets when the index exceeded 4000 points.

Finally, I want to say that writing this kind of analysis is to exercise my thinking and provide brothers and sisters with ideas, so you can learn to think independently. Stock trading is your own business. If you don’t understand early on, learn more, observe more. Later, you must develop your own analysis logic and stock selection strategy.

Section 4: Reflection. On Saturday, I met an old friend I hadn’t seen in a long time and played mahjong. It was fun, but I’m a bit playful. After returning, I couldn’t help but watch videos or chat. Time slipped away unknowingly. Last night, I reflected and decided not to meet again, to focus on reading, learning, thinking, and reviewing. Only after completing my first-phase goal will I relax gradually. The first stage of climbing requires no rest or entertainment—just focus on one thing, dedicate all time, energy, and money for the freedom in my heart. Let’s work together!