Smartphone Upgrade Demand Warming Up + Foldable Screen Imagination Space Broad Apple (AAPL.US) Receives Analyst Optimism

With analysts generally optimistic about iPhone demand prospects, Apple (AAPL.US) stock rose on Monday, outperforming some of its smartphone industry peers facing rising costs.

According to the Smart Finance APP, Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring stated in a recent report that an internal survey conducted from September 25 to October 22 showed strong demand for iPhones in multiple markets. Among them, the proportion of users intending to upgrade their iPhones within the next 12 months increased to 37%, up 2 percentage points year-over-year, with the upgrade rate in the Chinese market reaching a record high.

Previously, research firm Counterpoint Research also reported that in the first nine weeks of this year, Chinese iPhone sales grew by 23% year-over-year, while the overall smartphone market declined by 4%, highlighting Apple’s relative advantage in China.

At the industry level, driven by artificial intelligence demand, storage chip supply shortages have led many hardware manufacturers to raise product prices. However, Apple has not followed suit. Woodring believes that with the “iPhone 17 pricing remaining unchanged” and “Android manufacturers experiencing weaker demand due to price hikes on mid- and low-end models,” Apple is expected to be the only major smartphone vendor to increase its global market share this year.

Meanwhile, market expectations for a foldable iPhone are high. If launched, it would be one of the most significant design changes in iPhone history. Surveys show that about 27% of global iPhone users are “very interested” in foldable devices, with the figure in China approaching 40%.

Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan also stated that as a major innovation in form factor, foldable iPhones are expected to have strong initial demand. The supply chain has prepared for shipment volumes of 10 to 20 million units, significantly higher than competitors.

Analysts point out that the recovery in iPhone demand is crucial for Apple. According to FactSet data, the market expects iPhone sales to reach $242.9 billion in fiscal year 2026, a roughly 16% increase year-over-year, higher than the $209.6 billion in 2025.

Additionally, improvements in AI features are seen as potential catalysts. Although Apple’s AI upgrades have not yet fully convinced consumers, Woodring emphasized that AI features remain a key focus for users. Apple lags slightly behind Android in this area, but the upcoming upgrades to Siri and Apple Intelligence in 2026 are expected to become important foundations for future monetization.

Regarding stock performance, Apple rose 1.4% to $251.49 on Monday, while the S&P 500 index increased by 1.1%. Overall market sentiment has improved, coupled with better-than-expected fundamentals, supporting Apple’s stock performance.