Zijin Mining, Major Acquisition! Lithium Mine Concept Shakes and Rebounds! Huabao Fund Nonferrous Metals ETF 9 Consecutive Down Days on Daily Chart, Institutions: Oversold Correction Opportunity Worth Attention!

On Monday (March 23), the three major A-share indices all declined by over 3%, with the Shanghai Composite Index retreating below 3,800 points. The comprehensive gold, rare earth, copper, aluminum, and other non-ferrous metal industry leaders ETF (159876) fell along with the market, closing down 4.72% in intraday trading. It recorded nine consecutive days of decline on the daily chart, with a total trading volume of 138 million yuan, up 24% from the previous day, indicating active trading.

Notably, the intraday price of the non-ferrous ETF (159876) has fallen back to December last year levels, possibly providing an opportunity for funds optimistic about the future performance of non-ferrous metals to buy on dips.

Regarding constituent stocks, lithium concept stocks fluctuated and rebounded during the session. Leading lithium companies Yongxing Materials rose over 3%, Shengxin Lithium Energy and Ganfeng Lithium defied the trend to close in the red. Additionally, lead-zinc leader Guocheng Mining led gains of over 6%, while other stocks underperformed: Chifeng Gold hit the daily limit down, Shan Jin International and Hunan Silver fell more than 9%, dragging down the index.

How will the non-ferrous metals sector perform in the future? It can be analyzed from macro, industry, and individual stock perspectives:

1. Macro level: Since the outbreak of geopolitical events in the Middle East, oil prices have surged, intensifying inflation risks and reducing the likelihood of recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. This is a negative factor for gold, which does not generate interest. As of the report, spot gold has fallen below $4,200, and the 14-day relative strength index (a momentum indicator) for gold has further dropped below 30. Some traders see this as an oversold signal and believe that, due to technical reasons, gold may rebound in the short term. CITIC Securities believes that after the Middle East geopolitical events subside, gold is expected to reach new highs again.

2. Industry level: Lithium concept stocks fluctuated and rebounded during the session. In March, the lithium industry chain’s production has fully rebounded. Coupled with the implementation of “old-for-new” policies after the holiday and new vehicle launches, lithium battery demand is expected to remain positive throughout the year. Orient Securities states that the supply-demand pattern in the lithium industry has significantly improved, with an expected net increase of 448,000 tons of LCE in global lithium resources by 2026. However, core lithium companies’ capital expenditures are entering a contraction phase (growth rate of only 17.1% in 2024-2025). Combined with demand surges from renewable energy storage and AI infrastructure, the central price of lithium is likely to trend upward.

3. Individual stocks: Zijin Mining’s wholly owned subsidiary Zijin Gold plans to invest 18.258 billion yuan to acquire a 25.85% stake in Chifeng Gold through agreement transfer and private placement. Zijin Mining President Lin Hongfu stated that acquiring Chifeng Gold aligns with the company’s resource prioritization strategy; Chifeng Gold’s overseas mines have good prospecting and capacity expansion potential; and due to unresolved issues like global governance and excessive issuance of fiat currency, the logic for maintaining high gold prices or further increases remains unchanged in the medium to long term.

Looking at specific directions, Huatai Securities believes that the short-term sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector is mainly emotional release, but the medium-term logic remains intact: for gold, historical patterns show rapid rebounds after geopolitical conflicts end, with central bank holdings providing support; for industrial metals, tight supply at the copper mine end, domestic inventory depletion, and unpriced Middle Eastern aluminum capacity risks support the fundamentals; for minor metals like rare earths, tungsten, molybdenum, and cobalt, geopolitical conflicts catalyze demand, with strategic reserves and military procurement expectations strengthening. Supply is highly concentrated domestically, and external shocks are hard to replace, making these metals more resilient and valuable for medium-term allocation. Overall, the opportunity for recovery after overselling is worth active attention.

【Non-ferrous Metal Boom Is Here, the “Super Cycle” Is Unstoppable】

The Huabao (159876) non-ferrous ETF and its associated funds (A: 017140, C: 017141) fully cover industries such as copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, including precious metals (hedging), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery). This comprehensive coverage better captures the beta trend of the entire sector. Additionally, the ETF is a margin trading and short-selling target, making it an efficient tool for one-click exposure to the non-ferrous metals sector.

As of the end of February, Huabao (159876) had a latest scale of 2.427 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 10 million yuan over the past month. Among all ETFs tracking the same index, it ranks first in both size and liquidity.

Institutional reference sources: ① CITIC Securities’ March 18 report “Metal Industry Gold Hot Topics—Review of Gold Prices and Gold Sector After Middle East Conflicts”; ② Huatai Securities’ March 11 report “Non-ferrous Metals: ‘Troubles’ Under Middle East Geopolitical Impact”.

Reminder: Recent market volatility may be significant; short-term gains or losses do not predict future performance. Investors should invest rationally based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, paying close attention to position sizing and risk management.

ETF fee-related notes: When subscribing or redeeming fund shares, the agent may charge a commission of up to 0.5%. Intraday trading fees are subject to the actual charges of securities firms. No sales service fee is charged for ETFs.

Associated fund fee notes: Huabao CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF Initiated Fund (A) charges a subscription fee of 1,000 yuan per transaction for subscriptions of 2 million yuan or more, 0.6% for 1-2 million yuan, and 1% for less than 1 million yuan; redemption fee is 1.5% if held less than 7 days, 0% if held 7 days or more, with no sales service fee. Huabao CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF Initiated Fund © does not charge a subscription fee; redemption fee is 1.5% if held less than 7 days, 0% if held 7 days or more; sales service fee is 0.3%.

Risk warning: Huabao non-ferrous ETF tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index, which was launched on July 13, 2015, with a base date of December 31, 2013. The index’s annual returns over the past five years are: 2021, 35.89%; 2022, -19.22%; 2023, -10.43%; 2024, 2.96%; 2025, 91.67%. The index components are adjusted periodically according to the index rules. Past performance does not predict future results. The constituent stocks shown are for display only; stock descriptions are not investment advice and do not reflect holdings or trading activity of any funds managed by the manager. The risk level of this fund is assessed as R3—medium risk, suitable for balanced (C3) and above investors. Suitability matching opinions are subject to the sales institution. All information in this article (including stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, and any other forms) is for reference only. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions. The views, analysis, and forecasts in this article do not constitute investment advice, and the manager is not responsible for any direct or indirect losses caused by using this content. Fund investments carry risks; past performance does not guarantee future results. The performance of other funds managed by the manager does not guarantee the performance of this fund. Investors should exercise caution.