Bitcoin is failing to defend the $70,000 level, and signals for further decline are strengthening.

Recently, Bitcoin has fallen below $68,000, revealing technical weakness. The earlier breakthrough of $70,000 signals a weak rebound, indicating that upward market momentum has weakened. Currently, BTC is trading around $70.72K, down 5.09% over the past 7 days.

The Significance of the $70,000 Technical Resistance

For Bitcoin, $70,000 is more than just a number. This level has served as support since the first half of February. In an uptrend, surpassing this milestone signifies entering the next phase. Failing to hold $70,000 could lead to a decline in buying pressure and increased selling pressure.

Looking at recent volatility, Bitcoin faced selling pressure near $70,000. The current situation, where it failed to break this resistance and dropped below $68,000, suggests that the downward trend may not be over yet. If the price clearly drops below $67,000 on technical charts, attention will likely turn to the $65,000 and $60,000 ranges.

Major Coins’ Weakness Threatening Small Tokens

Last week, a notable phenomenon in the crypto market was the performance gap between large coins and small tokens. While Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB declined up to 3% over 7 days, smaller tokens like Zcash (ZEC) and Cosmos (ATOM) surged up to 20% in the same period.

However, the strength of these small coins may not last long. FxPro’s chief market analyst, Alex Kuptsekevi, pointed out, “The decline of the major coins is a bearish signal for smaller coins as well, potentially dragging them down even faster.” Historically, when mainstream coins underperform, the rest of the market struggles to sustain upward momentum.

On-Chain Signals Send Warnings: The Cleanup Is Not Complete

CryptoQuant’s on-chain analysis team assessed that the market has entered a stress phase. However, it’s important to note that large-scale loss realizations, which typically indicate a clear cycle bottom, have not yet appeared. This strongly suggests that the market’s correction process is still incomplete.

Looking at on-chain transaction data, retail investors have not yet realized significant losses. This means there is still room for further adjustment. This is why the breakdown of $70,000 may not be just a technical failure.

Uncertainties Surrounding Bitcoin: Quantum Computing to BIP-110

Several factors add to market uncertainty. First, the threat of quantum computing has resurfaced as a topic of discussion. Some investors worry about long-term security risks to cryptocurrencies, while developers argue that meaningful threats are decades away.

Additionally, controversy has intensified after Blockstream CEO Adam Back criticized the BIP-110 proposal update. Although intended to reduce spam on the Bitcoin network, concerns have been raised that changing transaction rules could introduce new reputation risks. Technical uncertainties significantly impact price volatility.

Institutional Investment Shifts and the Strait of Hormuz Variable

Institutional investment flows are also showing subtle changes. Harvard’s endowment reduced its Bitcoin ETF exposure by over 20% in Q4, though it still maintains its largest public crypto position within the fund.

Geopolitical tensions also influence the crypto market. After former US President Donald Trump announced a five-day halt on attacks against Iran’s energy infrastructure, Bitcoin largely held its gains above $70,000. If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz ease, leading to stabilized oil prices, Bitcoin could test the $74,000–$76,000 range again. Conversely, worsening conditions could trigger a sharp drop to the mid-$60,000s.

The Next Move: $70,000 Recovery Will Decide Everything

Bitcoin’s immediate technical challenge is clear. If it recovers $70,000, momentum is likely to reset. However, if this resistance is broken again, the market may begin to reflect deeper corrections.

Currently, altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin have risen about 5%, but such rebounds are likely temporary in the face of weakness among large coins. Crypto mining stocks, supported by broad stock market strength and gains of about 1.2% in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, show bullish signs but are unlikely to sustain unless Bitcoin’s technical signals fully reverse.

In conclusion, $70,000 is a critical juncture for Bitcoin. Whether this level can be defended will determine the future market direction, and investors’ focus will likely remain on the technical battles around this resistance level for the foreseeable future.