Bitcoin Under Pressure: When Whales Liquidate and Retailers Buy More

Last week, we faced one of those market anomalies that often precede significant changes. While Bitcoin’s price rebounded from the lows caused by rising tensions in the Middle East, something unsettling was happening beneath the surface: large holders were selling precisely when small investors were buying. This disconnect is not coincidental but a pattern that has historically warned that market corrections still have room to run.

The classic pattern warning of unfinished corrections

Santiment’s data reveal a revealing dynamic. During the most critical period of the Iran-related decline — between February 23 and March 3 — whales holding between $10,000 and $10 million in Bitcoin bought aggressively while prices fluctuated between $62,900 and $69,600. That was market intelligence in its purest form: panic buying.

But what happened afterward tells the real story. When Bitcoin hit $74,000 in early March, those same large holders began systematically unwinding their positions. So far, they have liquidated about 66% of what they had just accumulated. Meanwhile, small wallets — those with less than 0.01 BTC — have been continuously adding to their positions, buying the rebound without interruption.

“When retail investors buy while major accumulators sell, it typically indicates that the market correction has not yet bottomed out,” Santiment analysts noted in their weekly reports. It’s the opposite movement we would want to see. Whales are taking money out; small investors are putting it in. In market terms, that usually means the end has not yet arrived.

On-chain data expose Bitcoin’s vulnerability

Glassnode’s numbers worsen this concern. About 43% of all circulating Bitcoin is currently showing unrealized losses. This figure is critical because it means that every price advance hits a wall of sellers who have remained in losing positions for weeks or months.

When Bitcoin reached $74,000 on March 5, it was no coincidence that it faced heavy resistance. That resistance was built by two groups of sellers simultaneously: whales taking profits from their panic purchases, plus holders who were finally in a position to exit without losses at their cost basis. The result was a supply wall that sharply halted the rally.

The current Bitcoin economic context is also concerning. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 12 last weekend — territory of extreme fear. That reading is one of the lowest since October’s collapse. When fear reaches such extremes, there are often opportunities, but there is also usually more downside ahead.

Between panic and opportunity: Where is Bitcoin headed from here?

Bitcoin’s overall picture reveals a fascinating dichotomy: massive volatility without significant net movement. Bitcoin hit $60,000 in early February, rose to $74,000 in March, and is now trading around $70,550, barely gaining for the month. Intraday moves have been spectacular, but the net progress is almost zero.

This dynamic — where every rebound is sold and every dip is bought — typically resolves in one of two ways. The first scenario is that selling pressure exhausts itself, the supply of losing positions is absorbed, and Bitcoin decisively breaks above $74,000 toward new highs. The second scenario is that small buyers run out of capital, enthusiasm wanes, and the $60,000 support level is truly tested, possibly breaking down toward $55,000 or $58,000.

Whale behavior this week points much more toward the second scenario than the first.

Geopolitics and charts: Factors that will determine the next move

Several external catalysts are at play. After President Trump announced a five-day pause in operations against Iran’s energy infrastructure, Bitcoin regained territory above $70,000 and held most of those gains. Altcoins also responded positively, with Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin rising about 5%.

However, analysts warn that this respite could be temporary. Bitcoin’s next move will critically depend on whether oil prices and maritime transportation costs through the Strait of Hormuz stabilize. If they do, another attempt at resistance around $74,000–$76,000 is possible. If geopolitical tensions escalate again, Bitcoin could fall along with broader markets toward mid-$60,000s.

With 24% of the market now in extreme fear and smart money already taking profits, Bitcoin stands at a critical crossroads. Next week will reveal whether this rebound is sustainable or just another opportunity for whales to distribute to latecomers.