International Perspective | "An Ever-Widening Dangerous Vortex"—U.S.-Israel-Iran Conflict Poses "Four Major Impacts" on the World

Source: Xinhua News Agency

Xinhua, Beijing, March 22 — The military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran have entered their fourth week. How this conflict will end remains unpredictable, but it has already caused strong shocks and profound impacts on geopolitics and the global landscape.

International opinion warns that this war is like “a continuously expanding dangerous vortex,” involving regional security, backlash against the US itself, impacting the global economy, and disrupting the international order. The US and Israel’s “war addiction” and hegemonic inertia are seriously eroding the foundation of world peace and development.

“Middle East Faces Intergenerational Impact”

“America’s active involvement in Israel’s brutal and unchecked war will only make Middle Eastern countries worry that they might be the next target,” wrote Mark Lynch, a professor at George Washington University.

International observers believe that the US-Israel-Iran conflict is not only pushing the entire Middle East into a dangerous abyss but also will have “far-reaching intergenerational effects” on regional geopolitical patterns.

First, the Middle East may fall into long-term turmoil. Under the dual pressures of revenge sentiments and regime security, Iran may continue or even strengthen its hardline policies against the US and Israel, including asymmetric warfare, leading to prolonged confrontation. An Iran seeking revenge and rebuilding deterrence could add new variables to the region, keeping the Middle East in a state of high tension for a long time.

Second, the regional power balance is further shifting. Ding Long, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University, believes that the long-standing “Israel-Iran” strategic balance has been broken, with Israel’s strategic space and influence expanding accordingly. Prince Turki Faisal, former Saudi intelligence chief, explicitly stated that Israel’s expansionist ambitions pose a clear threat to regional stability.

This photo, taken on March 13, shows Israeli troops assembling at the northern border area bordering Lebanon. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Gil Cohen Magen)

Third, the regional security landscape may face reconstruction. Multiple Gulf countries with US military bases are impacted on security, energy, and economic levels, possibly experiencing a strong “betrayal feeling”: on one hand, the US insists on jointly launching the war with Israel, disregarding the security and interests of Gulf states; on the other hand, US military bases have become “risk sources” rather than “protective umbrellas.”

“Some Gulf countries realize that ‘US protection’ cannot be relied upon,” said Fawaz Jergis, a professor at the London School of Economics. Experts believe this conflict could mark a turning point in US-Gulf security relations, prompting Gulf states to reassess their dependence on the US, strengthen their own and collective defense capabilities, and accelerate seeking diversified security partners.

Hegemonic backlash against the US

“The US has become a predatory hegemon. Its consistent predatory policies will lead to a gradual, then sudden, decline in US global influence,” said Stephen Walt, a professor at Harvard University.

Although the Trump administration repeatedly claimed that the Iran operation would end “soon,” international opinion believes that the impact of this war on the US’s internal and external affairs has only just begun.

First, the Middle East conflict is shaking US midterm election prospects. The war has caused oil prices to rise, increasing inflation pressures in the US, making Americans “feel the chill.” Recent polls show that nearly 60% of Americans oppose military action against Iran. If this public opinion persists, it will lead to a loss of votes for President Trump’s Republican Party. Data from the “Calsi” prediction website indicates that the Democrats’ chances of regaining control of Congress in the November midterms have significantly increased.

Second, political polarization and division are deepening. The Iran operation has become a new focal point for partisan accusations, with Democrats criticizing the legality of military action and trying to push legislation to limit the president’s war powers. Trump and his core supporters in the “Make America Great Again (MAGA)” camp are also experiencing fractures—opinion leaders express dissatisfaction or distance themselves from Trump, and grassroots voters’ disappointment is spreading.

Finally, the US’s international reputation and influence continue to weaken. European allies quickly distanced themselves from US military actions, and disputes over escorting the Strait of Hormuz further widened transatlantic rifts. Elizabeth Saunders, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, said that the Iran conflict will further shake allies’ confidence in US strategic reliability, and widespread doubts about Washington’s decision-making system and civil-military relations will ultimately damage US international standing and influence.

US military actions have caused numerous civilian casualties, including Iranian children, yet the Trump administration, despite clear evidence, continues to evade and justify, provoking strong international resentment. Nicholas Kristof, a columnist for The New York Times, bluntly stated that in the eyes of the international community, the US has become a “rogue state.”

On February 28, in Minab, southern Iran, a man holds a backpack pulled from the rubble of an attacked school. Xinhua News Agency / Mehr News Agency

Many scholars compare the US-Israel-Iran conflict to the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis—considered to have marked the end of the British Empire—arguing that the US and Israel’s conflict may accelerate American hegemonic decline due to “strategic overreach.” American historian Alfred McCoy said that what we are witnessing now could be the “Suez moment” of US hegemony.

Global Economy Enshrouded in “Uncertainty Fog”

“This conflict is not over yet, but it has already made the world economy less prosperous, less stable, and harder to govern,” commented The Economist.

Experts believe that the US-Israel-Iran war’s impact on the global economy has reached nearly every corner of the world, ushering in an “era of energy insecurity,” with economic development facing “uncertainty at a new level.”

The Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran, carries about one-fifth of global oil transportation, a significant share of fertilizer and chemical product shipments, and about one-third of global maritime fertilizer trade. The conflict has effectively closed this strait, which Morgan Stanley analysts describe as an “unimaginable scenario.”

First, oil prices soar, and “energy anxiety” spreads. Many institutions predict that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Brent crude could surpass $150 per barrel, possibly reaching $200. Analysts compare the current situation to the 1970s oil crises. Although oil’s role in the global economy has diminished, it still remains critical in petrochemical production, transportation, and other key sectors, with destructive impacts not to be underestimated.

This photo, released by the Thai Navy on March 11, shows a Thai cargo ship caught fire after an attack in the Strait of Hormuz. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Thai Navy)

Second, the closure of the vital maritime route and rising energy prices impact global trade and supply chains, threatening food security. Disruptions or delays in chemical manufacturing supply chains, shortages of helium for chip production, and raw material shortages in various manufacturing industries could lead to food shortages and rising food prices.

Third, prolonged conflict increases global economic “uncertainty fog,” dampening investor and consumer confidence and weakening global growth momentum. Michael Klein, a professor at Tufts University, said, “War makes people reluctant to consume, companies hesitant to invest, and policymakers more difficult to steer the economy.” The crises in energy, finance, consumer confidence, corporate impacts, and rising unemployment—The Financial Times warns that this geopolitical conflict plunges the world back into a “stagflation shadow.”

Increasing oil production, repairing energy facilities, and restarting idle capacities will not quickly resolve the situation once the war ends. Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz said that this conflict has caused “increased uncertainty,” bringing “a disaster” to the world economy.

Endless Consequences of Destroyed International Order

“Using force at will to remove foreign leaders who do not follow one’s will, if such lawless behavior becomes commonplace, the international order based on sovereign equality will be completely lost,” warned international media. The US and Israel’s actions severely damage global strategic stability and erode the post-war international order and peace.

First, prolonged conflict may trigger a new refugee crisis. UNHCR reports that nearly 800,000 people have been displaced in Iran and Lebanon due to the conflict, with about 1.6 million Afghan and Iraqi refugees in Iran. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said that if the conflict continues to spread, it could evolve into a long-lasting refugee crisis.

Second, security anxieties may escalate nuclear proliferation risks. Media such as Vox pointed out that the Trump administration’s overt military actions to eliminate other countries’ nuclear capabilities and assassinate their leaders will greatly increase insecurity in many nations, reinforcing the logic that “nuclear arms are the only way to ensure self-protection.”

Third, confidence in international dialogue to resolve disputes is undermined. Cui Shoujun, a professor at Renmin University of China, said that the US’s sudden attack during negotiations with Iran is akin to “shaking hands while wielding a knife,” destroying the credibility of modern diplomacy.

From the raid on Venezuela to military strikes on Iran; from killing Iranian leaders to attacking civilian targets like schools—these actions by the US and Israel not only blatantly violate the basic principles of international law such as sovereignty, non-interference, and prohibition of the use of force as established by the UN Charter, but also breach the bottom line of civilization, trampling on the institutional achievements forged through blood and fire.

On March 7, people in New York participated in rallies protesting US and Israel’s military strikes on Iran. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Zhang Fengguo)

The actions of the US and Israel have been condemned by many countries. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the US and Israel’s killing of Iran’s top leader is a blatant violation of human morals and international law. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez criticized that the US and Israel’s military strikes on Iran are “illegal,” “irrational,” and cause serious damage.

Many international experts believe that US hegemonic behavior has formed a highly dangerous inertia, with the logic of might as right and blatant disregard for international law being the root causes of current global chaos. If hegemonic power is not restrained, breaking the rules will trigger a “broken window effect,” leading to more frequent and unimaginable dangerous acts.

As Brazilian President Lula has called for, all countries must learn to respect sovereignty and territorial integrity: “We cannot accept someone acting as the master of the world.”