Coin Market Bottom Debate: Analysis of the Possibility of Reaching the Gold Standard Next Month

According to the analysis team at Mercado Bitcoin, the timing of Bitcoin’s bottom formation in the coin market can vary significantly depending on whether it is measured in dollars or gold. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $70,670, experiencing a substantial correction from its all-time high.

Different Timeframes Based on Dollar and Gold Metrics

Roni Shuster, chief analyst at Mercado Bitcoin, Brazil’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, pointed out that even with the same data, the timeline can differ greatly. Applying the 12-13 month bearish cycle from the all-time high of approximately $126,000 recorded in October 2025 in dollar terms suggests that the downtrend could continue until the end of 2026.

However, analyzing the market in terms of gold yields a different scenario. If we apply the same 12-13 month cycle from Bitcoin’s peak relative to gold in January 2025, the bottom formation could occur around early April, with signs of recovery possibly appearing from late March.

Crossroads of Global Macro Environment and Capital Flows

The divergence in timelines reflects broader macroeconomic factors. Since the Trump administration took office, markets have faced layered uncertainties, including aggressive trade policies, political instability within the US, and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The deepening confrontation with Iran, in particular, has heightened concerns over oil supply chains, fueling global anxiety.

In this environment, gold has rapidly become a safe haven. Over the past year, gold prices have surged over 80%, reaching $5,280, prompting capital to shift from digital assets to traditional safe assets. Mercado Bitcoin’s analysis indicates that these capital flow shifts are a key reason for the differing timelines when measured in dollars versus gold.

The ETF market also exerts pressure. Since November, approximately $7.8 billion has exited spot Bitcoin ETFs, accounting for about 12% of the total market size.

Institutional Buying Signals and Market Sentiment Reversal

However, fear-driven sell-offs are not the whole story. Industry analysts are paying attention to contrarian actions by large investors. Notably, major funds in Abu Dhabi, Mubadala Investment and Al Warda Investments, have increased their exposure to spot Bitcoin ETFs amid the market downturn. This suggests that long-term capital is viewing short-term fear as an opportunity.

Shuster commented that “historically, buying during periods of fear has been more effective than during overheated bullish phases,” and recommended that investors adopt dollar-cost averaging strategies to systematically build positions.

Current Market Outlook and Variables

The recent recovery of Bitcoin to $70,000 is attributed to signals of easing tensions between the US and Iran. Major altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin also rose about 5%, while broad stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained around 1.2%, indicating a synchronized rally.

Analysts believe that Bitcoin’s future direction depends on the stability of oil prices and the normalization of maritime transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. In a positive scenario, Bitcoin could retest the $74,000–$76,000 range, while in a negative scenario, it could fall back to the mid-$60,000s.

Currently, the crypto market is at a crossroads of fear and opportunity, with macroeconomic variables and market sentiment interacting to shape short-term trends.