Understanding Consistent Expectations Across 10+ Brokerage Strategy Conferences: Technology Growth and Pro-cyclical Sectors Form the Main Investment Research Theme

What are the key factors driving the market shift toward profitability in 2026, according to AI?

21st Century Business Herald Reporter Cui Wenjing

In March, the capital markets usher in the annual “Strategy Season.” As an important window for securities firms to communicate their latest views and interact with investors, spring strategy conferences attract much attention.

As of March 19, nearly 20 securities firms including China International Capital Corporation, Huatai Securities, GF Securities, Kaiyuan Securities, and Industrial Securities have held spring strategy meetings or corporate exchange conferences for 2026. The highly anticipated CITIC Securities 2026 Spring Capital Market Forum also kicked off in Beijing on March 19, followed by institutions like Guotai Huarong and Guosheng Securities releasing their latest strategic insights.

Based on the core messages conveyed at these conferences, the market in 2026 is at a critical turning point.

Most institutions believe that China’s asset revaluation will deepen from the prelude in 2025 into 2026. The market’s pricing logic is shifting from “liquidity-driven” to “profitability-driven,” with rising corporate profit margins becoming the key to the next phase of the A-share bull market.

In terms of industry allocation, “tech growth + pro-cyclicals” remains the main theme throughout the year. Meanwhile, physical assets with strategic resource value, China’s manufacturing industries with global pricing power, and assets benefiting from the “wealth migration” of residents collectively form the key coordinates of the 2026 investment landscape.

2026, as the opening year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, is also a crucial period for advancing toward China’s 2035 long-term goals. Stable macroeconomic operation is the “ballast” for market confidence.

At the CITIC Securities 2026 Spring Capital Market Forum on March 19, Zhu Yexin, a member of the CITIC Securities Party Committee and head of the Research Department, pointed out that the government work report for 2026 set the economic growth target at 4.5%–5%. This aligns with the overall vision for 2035 and leaves room for structural adjustments, risk prevention, and reform promotion. More importantly, new productive forces represented by AI, commercial aerospace, and biotech are moving from conceptual exploration to industrial implementation, rewriting the growth trajectory of the economy and markets.

There is a high consensus among many securities firms regarding the fundamental shift in market pricing logic.

CITIC Securities’ Chief A-shares Strategist Qiu Xiang raised three key issues: How will the ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflicts evolve into sustained supply chain disruptions? After a year and a half of bull market, what will support continued upward movement in A-shares? Will weakening global financial conditions lead to significant style shifts? And how will disruptive innovations driven by AI accelerate, affecting asset allocation? His answer: At the index level, valuation repair space is limited; the key to the next phase of the A-share bull market is the rebound in corporate profit margins. The disruptions in global supply chains also provide an opportunity for China’s manufacturing advantage to validate its pricing power.

This view aligns with Huatai Securities.

Liang Hong, Chair of Huatai Securities’ Institutional Business Committee, emphasized that China’s asset revaluation began in 2025 and will deepen in 2026. We are at an “acceleration point” of breakthrough and rebirth. Huatai Securities’ Chief Macroeconomist Yi Huan further explained that the “more consumptive global asset expenditure cycle” is driven by four forces: AI capital expenditure entering infrastructure, a rebound in global defense spending, bottoming out of China’s real estate construction costs, and the recovery of the global manufacturing cycle. These will push up PPI, becoming a leading indicator of China’s asset revaluation deepening.

He Ning, Chief Macro Analyst at Kaiyuan Securities, viewed from the perspective of industrial structural transformation that new productive forces are expected to take over the “pillar industry” status of real estate. The proportion of new productive forces in nominal GDP continues to rise, approaching that of narrow real estate, significantly increasing influence and driving a new upward cycle in total factor productivity. China’s shift from old to new growth drivers aligns with the global electrification process, markedly increasing dependence on non-ferrous metals and power infrastructure, forming a rapid development pattern based on energy and core industries.

CITIC Securities’ Senior Managing Director and Chief Strategy Analyst Miao Yanliang pointed out that after the market evolution in 2025, investors have formed three major consensus: the bull markets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will continue, gold will remain bullish, commodities have opportunities, and U.S. stocks may underperform Chinese assets. He emphasized that in 2025, the international monetary order is accelerating its restructuring, fundamentally due to declining safety of dollar assets caused by U.S. balance sheet issues, U.S. policy shocks, and the resilience and innovation narrative of China’s economy reversing.

In specific asset allocation, the “tech + cyclicals” dual-drive pattern remains the clearest signal from all spring strategy conferences. However, in sub-sector and timing strategies, institutions also show their unique insights.

Qiu Xiang from CITIC Securities stressed the importance of focusing on China’s manufacturing advantage and revaluation of pricing power. He noted that historically, major conflicts in the Middle East and oil price shocks have been “strongest shields” when undervalued, and China’s advantage manufacturing sector benefits from “code expansion and physical scarcity,” enhancing its pricing power.

Regarding specific industries, he recommends focusing on sectors with market share advantages, high costs of overseas capacity reorganization, and supply flexibility affected by policies—such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, and new energy. He also suggests increasing exposure to undervalued factors, especially in insurance, securities, and power sectors.

Notably, Qiu Xiang emphasized the short-term value of a “price increase” strategy. He believes that the U.S.-Iran conflict and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could temporarily raise oil prices, shifting the cost curve of cyclicals upward. Under this narrative, multiple structural opportunities exist, such as chemical products with alternative raw materials or processes, products with significant Middle Eastern or Western European capacity, and commodities with supply-demand balance benefiting from cost pass-through. He described price hikes as the sharpest “spear” in Q1.

From a technology perspective, the focus is shifting from purely hardware computing power to broader enabling fields.

Wai Jixing, Chief Strategy Analyst at Kaiyuan Securities, believes that in AI technology, computing power capital, power infrastructure, and ecological platforms will be the core beneficiaries of this wealth redistribution cycle. 2026 is expected to be a year of thematic investment, with opportunities along the “14th Five-Year Plan,” focusing on aerospace, low-altitude economy, embodied intelligence, and biotech. Li Yujie, a strategist at Huatai Securities, advised that for China’s AI industry, investors should avoid focusing solely on upstream chips or downstream applications. Instead, they should adopt a bottom-up approach, selecting high-quality companies with potential across the entire industry chain. She also pointed out that in 2026, the driving logic for Hong Kong stocks has shifted from valuation and liquidity to profitability, with opportunities arising from marginal stabilization in real estate and tight supply-demand conditions.

The “price increase” logic in pro-cyclicals is one of the most frequently mentioned themes at this year’s strategy conferences.

Industrial Securities’ Chief Strategy Analyst Zhang Qiyao believes that “price increase” trading will be the core investment theme in the coming period, with February to April and July to August being two major excess return windows. Huachuang Securities’ Chief Strategy Analyst Yao Pei noted that recent geopolitical conflicts have caused oil prices to surge. According to Huachuang’s macro team, a $10 increase in oil prices could boost PPI by about 0.3–0.4 percentage points, benefiting upstream industries and expanding profit margins. Western Securities’ Chief Strategy Analyst Cao Liulong even predicted a “super cycle” of oil prices in 2026, with refining sectors benefiting significantly. He believes China’s strong export capacity, stable cash flows in refining, and low capital expenditure could present value investment opportunities, recommending allocations to oil and chemicals in the first half and white spirits and Hang Seng Tech in the second half.

In resource commodities and physical assets, Guojin Securities’ Chief Strategy Officer Mou Yiling emphasized prioritizing physical assets with strategic resource value, such as crude oil, copper, aluminum, rare earths, coal, and rubber. Regarding gold and other commodities, he noted that gold has surpassed U.S. Treasuries as a global reserve asset, and in the medium term, gold still has room to increase in global reserves, with price corrections potentially signaling a re-centering of allocation. Tanfeng Securities’ Metals & Materials Chief Analyst Liu Yuchang also believes that uncertainties and loose liquidity could support both structural and cyclical demand for gold, creating resonance for prices. Strategic minerals, as key raw materials for manufacturing upgrades, will also gradually be recognized for their strategic and economic value.

The ecological optimization of the capital market is the underlying logic supporting the 2026 rally. Zhu Yexin from CITIC Securities stated that a market with better investor return protections is taking shape. Regulatory efforts continue, cracking down on financial fraud and insider trading, and strictly implementing delisting rules, greatly purifying the market environment. Meanwhile, multi-level capital market systems are becoming more inclusive, with reforms in the ChiNext board, optimized refinancing mechanisms, and more accommodating listing standards supporting new industries, new business models, and technological innovation companies. This solid foundational restructuring has increased the global attractiveness of Chinese assets. Driven by fundamental recovery and increased capital inflows, the A-share market is transitioning from stock-to-stock competition to a key inflection point of incremental allocation, with a more resilient and stable new capital market ecosystem forming.

From the capital side, the “wealth migration” effect is emerging. Wai Jixing from Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that as real estate’s investment attributes weaken, resident funds are expected to flow into the market indirectly through “fixed income+” and secondary bond funds, providing steady incremental capital. Based on this trend, dividend-oriented stocks are expected to outperform in 2026, making them suitable for stable core holdings. Sun Yin, Deputy Director of Western Securities’ Business Department, also believes that in a low-interest-rate environment, reallocation pressure on fixed income funds will increase, with insurers and proprietary trading by securities firms becoming important channels for capital inflows, which could boost market activity.

Regarding asset allocation, most institutions agree that equities outperform bonds, and commodities are resilient. CITIC Securities’ Chief Economist Ming Ming predicts that China’s real GDP growth in 2026 will stay around 4.9%, with the year likely showing a “V” shaped recovery, and nominal GDP rising rapidly amid inflation. Zhang Jiqiang, Director of Huatai Securities Research Institute, cautions that the duration of geopolitical conflicts is a key variable, but trend-wise, stocks and commodities are expected to outperform bonds, with upstream resources outperforming downstream consumption. He recommends a balanced allocation strategy to hedge short-term uncertainties.

GF Securities’ Chief Economist Guo Lei also shares similar views, noting that at different stages of technological progress, asset choices have distinct characteristics. In 2026, the market will show a divergence and convergence of new and old assets. Mid-term potential in tech assets is high but with short-term risk constraints; consumer assets have high mid-term success rates but also high short-term risks; cyclicals have high short-term success and risk. A balanced allocation is advised.

CICC’s Chief Strategy Analyst Zhang Xia proposed a “dumbbell strategy,” recommending investors allocate to high-dividend, defensive assets on one end and technological growth on the other, capturing resource price increase opportunities while not neglecting long-term technological innovation, aiming to maximize returns in the latter half of the bull market.