Hedera HBAR's Bullish Divergence Pattern May Hold the Key to Recovery Amid Selloff

Hedera’s HBAR token faces significant headwinds as it enters the final weeks of the first quarter 2026, following one of the market’s sharpest corrections. The token has plummeted nearly 35% since mid-January, with losses accelerating during the broader sell-off spanning late January through early February. Measured from its November peak, HBAR now trades roughly 40% lower, reflecting diminished upside momentum. Yet beneath this bearish surface, a compelling bullish divergence pattern has emerged across multiple indicators—one that suggests a turnaround remains possible if key technical conditions align.

The Bullish Divergence Pattern: Money Flow Signals Resilience Despite Price Weakness

HBAR’s broader chart structure tells a story distinctly different from its price action. Since late October 2025, the token has been consolidating within a falling wedge formation—a pattern where successive highs and lows descend, but the trading range gradually narrows. This technical setup typically signals that selling pressure is weakening, and crucially, HBAR has maintained this pattern structure even after the January crash. This resilience keeps the recovery thesis alive.

The bullish divergence pattern becomes most apparent when analyzing money flow indicators. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether institutional and large traders are accumulating or distributing, has formed a striking divergence since late December. While HBAR’s price trended downward between December 30 and February 2, the CMF simultaneously trended upward—a classic bullish divergence pattern signaling that capital continues flowing into the asset despite deteriorating prices.

Though CMF recently slipped below its rising trendline and dipped toward neutral, it remains close to the zero level rather than deeply negative. Similarly, the Money Flow Index (MFI), a measure of accumulation intensity, shows an analogous bullish divergence pattern. Since late November, HBAR’s price has declined consistently while MFI has climbed, suggesting traders have been systematically buying dips for over two months. The MFI has begun curling upward again and currently sits near 41—a move above 54 would reinforce the bullish divergence further.

Together, these indicators paint a picture of continued buyer interest. The bullish divergence pattern across CMF and MFI suggests that even after a 35% selloff, capital has not abandoned the market. Instead, accumulation appears to be happening quietly within the falling wedge structure. This dynamic keeps rebound prospects alive, contingent on one critical factor: volume confirmation.

The Volume Challenge: When One Pattern Breaks, Can Another Hold?

While the money flow bullish divergence pattern looks constructive, volume data introduces complexity and caution. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, which measures whether volume supports price trends, has been weakening alongside the rally attempts. Critically, OBV broke below a key descending trendline on January 29 and has continued deteriorating since October—creating a bearish divergence pattern that contradicts the bullish signals from CMF and MFI.

This OBV pattern weakness means each price recovery has lacked strong volume support, a concerning structural flaw. Spot flow data corroborates this concern: for nearly 14 consecutive weeks since late October, HBAR recorded net outflows on a weekly basis. More tokens left exchanges than entered them—a period reflecting steady trader accumulation during the price correction, consistent with the MFI divergence discussed earlier. However, this consistent outflow pattern created a ceiling on rallies, with weakening OBV preventing stronger rebounds.

The critical shift occurred on February 2. That week marked HBAR’s first meaningful period of net inflows ($749,000) since October—breaking the three-month outflow streak. While this seems positive, it also explains the recent OBV breakdown below its descending trendline. The pattern suggests a transition from accumulation (outflows = buyers taking possession) to potential distribution (inflows = sellers accepting lower prices). Paradoxically, this breaks the accumulation pattern in a way that could limit further upside.

The tension is now clear: the bullish divergence pattern in CMF and MFI suggests buyers remain engaged, but the broken outflow pattern and deteriorating OBV suggest supply is no longer being absorbed as efficiently. Without sustained outflows to indicate continued demand at lower prices, subsequent rallies may struggle to gain traction or may not even initiate.

Price Levels Now Determine Whether The Pattern Holds Or Breaks

Given these contradictory signals, price action becomes the ultimate arbiter. The immediate support level sits near $0.076. If HBAR maintains this floor and CMF and MFI continue improving, recovery attempts can persist. A clean break below $0.076 would signal sellers regaining control—a scenario OBV’s recent weakness already hints at. In that bear case, downside targets emerge near $0.062 and $0.043.

On the upside, $0.090 represents the first resistance hurdle, provided OBV shows improvement. This zone has repeatedly capped rallies since January and marks important short-term resistance. Reclaiming $0.090 would signal early confidence returning. Beyond this level, $0.107 marks the major test—a sustained break above would confirm a breakout from the falling wedge pattern structure. Successfully penetrating $0.107 would activate the wedge’s measured target, suggesting potential 52% upside over time.

The current price of $0.09 places HBAR nearly at the first resistance threshold, making the next moves critically important. The bullish divergence pattern remains intact for now, but it requires volume and price confirmation to transform from a hopeful technical signal into a confirmed reversal. Until then, the pattern holds promise but remains vulnerable to breakdown.