Careful Analysis: How US Macro Events Will Affect Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2026

The start of the year brings challenges for crypto traders who need to act cautiously. With very low liquidity and limited information from the US economy, Bitcoin and Ethereum may experience sudden price swings. The coming weeks will be critical for all digital asset investors.

Why Traders Need to Be Cautious at the Beginning of the Year

Our main concern is the very low trading volume that repeats near the end of the year. Normally, large amounts of money move in the market to balance prices. But in the first month of the year, many traders are inactive due to holidays. This means even small news can cause significant changes in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Traders investing heavily during this time should be extremely careful.

FOMC Minutes and Labor Data: Critical Triggers for Volatility

The most important events to watch are the release of the FOMC meeting notes from the Federal Reserve. These will give analysts clues about the monetary authority’s plans for the coming year. If the minutes show more aggressive rate cuts, demand for risk assets like cryptocurrencies may increase. Conversely, if the tone is more conservative, prices could decline.

Included here is the Initial Jobless Claims data also released during the same period. This economic indicator shows how many people are losing jobs. Lower numbers indicate a stronger labor market. And if the labor market is strong, the Federal Reserve may allow for larger rate hikes, which is not good for crypto. Traders should prepare for different scenarios.

Support and Resistance Levels to Watch for BTC and ETH

For Bitcoin, critical support is between $89,500 and $90,000. If BTC maintains its price above this level, there’s still hope to reach $90,500 and beyond to the resistance zone of $93,000 to $93,650. But if the price drops below $89,500, additional pressure could push Bitcoin back to $87,500 to $88,000.

Ethereum shows a similar pattern but with higher volatility. ETH remains strong if it holds the $2,900 to $3,000 level. Positive macroeconomic signals could help Ethereum reach the $3,200 to $3,300 resistance area. However, if the price falls below $2,900, we might see a deeper decline toward $2,700 to $2,650.

Trader Strategies in Thin Liquidity and High Volatility

In the midst of very low market transactions, the best approach is to be cautious and focus on key technical levels. Avoid investing large amounts at once. Swing traders should prepare for quick price movements and be ready to adjust their strategies based on actual data.

Long-term investors should pause and wait for more normal trading volume before making big decisions. When liquidity returns, the true market direction will become clearer. Currently, the best practice is to prioritize risk management and avoid playing big games in thin liquidity conditions.

The message for everyone is simple but important: carefully manage daily trading until we reach more normal conditions in the digital asset market.