【US Stock Market】Iran's prolonged conflict raises doubts about Japan and others releasing oil reserves; oil prices rise 4% (updating)

Iranian media reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement claiming that the Mayuree Naree was attacked after “ignoring warnings from the IRGC Navy.” According to shipping website marinetraffic, the Mayuree Naree is currently in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Fars News Agency quoted a military spokesperson as saying: “The policy of proportional retaliation has ended; from now on, our policy will be continuous strikes. No oil tanker will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to benefit the United States, Zionist regimes, and their partners.”

However, countries like Japan will release oil reserves. The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a statement saying that its 32 member countries agreed on Wednesday (11th) to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, the largest ever, to address the chaos in the oil market caused by the Middle East war.

International oil prices rose 4%, with NY crude futures at $86.41 per barrel and Brent crude at $91.1.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average once fell 412 points to 47,294, the S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,787, and the Nasdaq increased 0.4% to 22,782.

U.S. February inflation data met expectations, with overall CPI year-over-year up 2.4%, and monthly increase rising 0.1 percentage points to 0.3%. Core CPI remained at 2.5% year-over-year, with a monthly increase falling 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%. Notably, this does not yet reflect the impact of the surge in international oil prices due to the Middle East war.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page

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Market Trends:

【21:30】Dow opens down 22 points at 47,683; Nasdaq up 0.3% at 22,765; S&P up 7 points at 6,788.

【19:04】Dow futures up 133 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.2%; S&P futures up 16 points.

【01:50】Dow futures up 121 points at 47,866; S&P futures up 18 points at 6,805; Nasdaq futures up 58 points or 0.2% at 25,041.

【12:47】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices rise; Fed stance shifts hawkish? US banks warn market may be misjudging the situation; large rate cuts still possible.

【10:48】【Iran Crisis】EIA: Brent crude will stay above $95 for the next two months, expected to fall back to about $70 by year-end.

【09:53】NVIDIA partners with competitors of OpenAI, providing 1 gigawatt Vera Rubin chips to Thinking Machines.

【08:59】【Fed Chair】Senator Thom Tillis meets with Waller, reiterates opposition to Powell nomination before DOJ investigation concludes.

【08:31】【Iran Crisis】IEA reportedly proposes releasing over 180 million barrels of oil reserves; oil prices turn from rising to falling.

【07:45】【AI + Defense】Anthropic states its AI tools are blacklisted, potentially costing the company billions.

【07:25】【AI + Oracle】Oracle earnings beat expectations, surging 8% after hours.

【06:26】【Iran Crisis】Iran plans to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz; thousands in stockpile. Trump: Will face unprecedented military consequences (updating).

$1 or less for March 10 US stock market overview====

Tuesday: White House: US did not escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 34 points; oil prices sharply recovered.

Market focuses on latest developments in Middle East, oil prices remain soft, Dow turns lower. On Tuesday, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that the US Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, but the post was soon deleted. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the US did not escort any ships.

See US stocks closing:

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Iranian IRGC responds that the claim of US military escort is pure lies; any actions by the US and allies will be blocked within Iran’s missile and drone range.

Market hopes for an end to US-Iran conflict; NY crude settles at $83.45, down 11.94%; Brent drops 11.28%, at $87.8.

The Dow once rose 479 points, but closed down 34 points at 47,706; S&P fell 0.21% to 6,736; Nasdaq down 1.5% to 22,061; the Golden Dragon Index, reflecting Chinese concept stocks, rose 1.96%.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday was the most intense day of military actions against Iran, with the most fighters and bombers deployed. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Milley said the US is striking Iranian missile and drone vessels.

Hegseth described it as a targeted, precise strike, not a prolonged “nation-building” war.

UAE oil refinery halted operations after drone attacks. Seven countries’ energy ministers (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US) held a meeting Tuesday to discuss releasing oil reserves. CNBC sources say the US considers releasing 300-400 million barrels of oil appropriate.

Amazon is returning to the bond market; Bloomberg reports the company plans to issue up to 11 tranches, from 2-year to 50-year maturities. The longest tranche, maturing in 2076, is preliminarily priced about 1.55 percentage points above US Treasuries.

The US dollar index fell 0.3% to 98.93; US 10-year Treasury yields steadied at 4.159%. Gold rebounded 1.9% to $5,206 per ounce; silver rose 2.5% to $86.63.

US military continues to demonstrate strength. According to BBC, US B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are stationed at RAF Fairford, with three B-52s landing in one day—the first appearance of B-52s in the UK since the conflict began.

B-52s are typical “forward-deployed” strategic bombers, indicating a large-scale air campaign or imminent escalation. As heavily armed aircraft, once enemy air defenses are weakened, they can deliver massive conventional ground-attack munitions to destroy infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.

Additionally, US stock markets will open one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time due to daylight saving.

Swiss UBS notes that the oil market has entered panic mode, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, causing trade blockages, not military blockades. However, oil supply in the Middle East could face up to 75% shutdown this week and beyond.

The bank says it will continue to monitor the situation closely. No significant damage to energy infrastructure has been observed; Iran’s military power appears to be weakening. A solution to keep trade flowing around the Strait of Hormuz remains feasible. Given the fog of war, they reaffirm a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, with expectations that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page

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Market Trends:

【18:20】Dow futures down 492 points; Nasdaq futures down 1.1%; oil surges over 10%, breaking $100. Markets open one hour earlier for summer time.

【12:07】Dow futures down 1,006 points at 46,511; S&P futures down 130 points at 6,613; Nasdaq futures down 542 points or 2.2% at 24,127.

【12:07】【Iran Crisis】Iran conflict impacts financial markets; senior strategist Yardeni: US stocks may crash by 35% before year-end.

【11:15】【Tencent】Reportedly plans to acquire Warner Bros. via Paramount, investing hundreds of millions.

【10:33】【Iran Crisis】Oil surges past $100, NY crude up 30%, with other Gulf producers cutting output.

【10:20】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices spike, dragging down Asia-Pacific stocks; “Black Monday” with Japan and Korea down over 7%; South Korea considers oil price cap.

【09:56】【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan: Middle East oil capacity may decrease by 4 million barrels daily by next weekend.

【09:50】【Iran Crisis】Schroders’ Tedder: Oil may hit $100; “I won’t reduce energy stocks in next 2-3 years.”

【08:17】【Iran Crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000; oil surge fuels inflation fears.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday begins; oil up 20%, nearing $111; Trump: Small price to pay; Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (updating).

【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and US inflation data; US markets open one hour early.

【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and worse-than-expected US jobs data caused last week’s big sell-off; Dow once down 945 points to 47,009; VIX volatility index soared 21.6% to 28.88. Dow closed down 453 points; S&P down 1.33%; Nasdaq down 1.59%.

See US stocks closing:

▼Click image to enlarge

Iranian IRGC responds that the claim of US military escort is pure lies; any actions by the US and allies will be blocked within Iran’s missile and drone range.

Market hopes for an end to US-Iran conflict; NY crude settles at $83.45, down 11.94%; Brent drops 11.28%, at $87.8.

The Dow once rose 479 points, but closed down 34 points at 47,740; S&P down 0.21% to 6,795; Nasdaq up 1.4% to 22,695; Brent crude initially surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel. G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves via IEA to counter oil price spike after Gulf conflict.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency reserves post-US-Israel war.

Lescure told reporters after the G7 finance ministers’ virtual meeting in Brussels: “Our consensus is to use all necessary means to stabilize the market, including possible release of reserves.” He added that governments are closely monitoring the situation; no supply issues have emerged in Europe or the US.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “The IEA calls on countries to coordinate releasing oil reserves. Given current circumstances, G7 agrees to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures, including releasing reserves.” He also said that OECD, World Bank, and IMF officials participated in the meeting. G7 will soon hold a ministerial meeting on energy to discuss further steps.

As of 2022 data, IEA member countries’ emergency oil reserves under OECD control are estimated at over 1.2 billion barrels, mostly crude oil. According to IEA rules, all members must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports, ensuring at least three months of supply under normal consumption.

Market stabilizes; US dollar index down 0.1% at 98.877; US 10-year Treasury yields steady at 4.107%. Gold’s decline narrows to 0.6%, at $5,138; silver up 2.5% at $86.63.

US military continues to show strength. According to BBC, US B-52 and B-1 bombers are stationed at RAF Fairford, with three B-52s landing in one day—the first appearance since the conflict began.

B-52s are typical “forward-deployed” strategic bombers, indicating a large-scale air campaign or imminent escalation. As heavily armed aircraft, once enemy defenses are weakened, they can deliver massive conventional munitions to destroy infrastructure, industrial sites, or large ground forces.

Additionally, US markets will open one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time due to daylight saving.

Swiss UBS notes that the oil market has entered panic mode, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial change. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, causing trade blockages, not military blockades. However, oil supply in the Middle East could face up to 75% shutdown this week and beyond.

The bank says it will continue to monitor the situation closely. No significant damage to energy infrastructure has been observed; Iran’s military power appears to be weakening. A solution to keep trade flowing around the Strait of Hormuz remains feasible. Given the fog of war, they reaffirm a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, with expectations that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page

▼Click image to enlarge

Market Trends:

【18:20】Dow futures down 492 points; Nasdaq futures down 1.1%; oil surges over 10%, breaking $100. Markets open one hour earlier for summer time.

【12:07】Dow futures down 1,006 points at 46,511; S&P futures down 130 points at 6,613; Nasdaq futures down 542 points or 2.2% at 24,127.

【12:07】【Iran Crisis】Iran conflict impacts financial markets; senior strategist Yardeni: US stocks may crash by 35% before year-end.

【11:15】【Tencent】Reportedly plans to acquire Warner Bros. via Paramount, investing hundreds of millions.

【10:33】【Iran Crisis】Oil surges past $100, NY crude up 30%, with other Gulf producers cutting output.

【10:20】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices spike, dragging down Asia-Pacific stocks; “Black Monday” with Japan and Korea down over 7%; South Korea considers oil price cap.

【09:56】【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan: Middle East oil capacity may decrease by 4 million barrels daily by next weekend.

【09:50】【Iran Crisis】Schroders’ Tedder: Oil may hit $100; “I won’t reduce energy stocks in next 2-3 years.”

【08:17】【Iran Crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000; oil surge fuels inflation fears.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday begins; oil up 20%, nearing $111; Trump: Small price to pay; Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (updating).

【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and US inflation data; US markets open one hour early.

【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and worse-than-expected US jobs data caused last week’s big sell-off; Dow once down 945 points to 47,009; VIX volatility index soared 21.6% to 28.88. Dow closed down 453 points; S&P down 1.33%; Nasdaq down 1.59%.