CICC Wealth Futures: Optimistic Sentiment Dominates Lithium Carbonate Market

The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not changed much, but optimistic sentiment has dominated the market. Supply-side increases are accelerating: overseas lithium mines are resuming production faster, and domestic salt lakes and ore lithium production capacities are ramping up, leading to a rebound in supply growth; some lithium salt producers are shifting from scarcity to shipment, increasing market circulation and suppressing price increases. On the demand side, seasonal weakness is evident: as the Spring Festival approaches, battery and cathode material manufacturers are entering holiday cycles, with pre-holiday stockpiling mostly completed. Production in February has decreased month-on-month, and immediate demand has contracted, resulting in a phased supply and demand surplus. However, the fundamentals currently provide limited guidance for lithium prices, and market optimism about energy storage is the main driver of overall market volatility. After the holiday, the market may enter a phase characterized by “short-term supply and demand certainty + optimistic market expectations,” with optimism dominating the trend. (CICC Wealth Futures)