Mike McGlone warns about the risk of Bitcoin devaluation amid deflationary expectations

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, once again draws market attention with his contrasting outlook compared to current investor sentiment. This time, McGlone forecasts a significant undervaluation of Bitcoin relative to gold, which could signal an upcoming shift in the digital asset market. Despite his well-known skepticism toward the crypto market, the analyst has identified an interesting pattern in the ratio between these two assets.

Deflation Logic: Why McGlone Prefers Gold

According to the analyst, the current economic situation is transitioning into a deflationary phase after a period of inflationary pressure. During such times, experienced investors traditionally shift from risky speculative assets to conservative stores of value. McGlone believes that gold, as a long-established asset with centuries of history, becomes the preferred choice for portfolio managers.

He assesses that the crypto market is too volatile and speculative for an uncertain economic environment. This explains why, even at record prices—Bitcoin reaching over $105,000 last year—market strategist sees a fundamental overvaluation of the asset.

Overvaluation of Bitcoin: 33x Advantage That Could Disappear

A key metric in McGlone’s analysis is the value ratio: at its peak in 2025, one Bitcoin was worth 33 times more than an ounce of gold. According to him, such a disparity is historically unsustainable and signals a correction. He emphasizes that if traditional financial markets enter a bear trend, pressure on speculative assets will inevitably increase.

This ratio serves as evidence for McGlone that the crypto market has been overvalued, and in an economic slowdown, such assets are among the first to be sold off by institutional investors.

McGlone’s Scenario: Bitcoin to $40,000, Gold to $4,000

Based on Bloomberg’s calculations, the asset balance scenario looks like this: gold rises to $4,000 per ounce, and Bitcoin drops to $40,000. This would reduce the ratio from 33x to 10x— a level McGlone considers more fair under deflationary pressures.

Interestingly, he views the $40,000 level for Bitcoin not as a bottom but as an appropriate valuation within the macroeconomic cycle. While this price aligns with levels seen as early as 2023, McGlone sees it as a fair overvaluation relative to traditional assets.

Current Market Condition: From Peak to Correction

As of the latest market data, Bitcoin is trading at around $68,370, down 3.91% in the past 24 hours. The significant drop from over $105,000 indicates that the market has already begun reacting to macroeconomic signals that McGlone anticipated. The daily trading volume is $937 million, reflecting active trader engagement despite the correction.

Data shows that both experts and retail investors are closely monitoring the dynamics. Although McGlone’s full scenario ($40,000) has not yet materialized, the price movement direction aligns with his forecast of capital shifting away from speculative assets.

Alternative View: Robert Kiyosaki Believes the Opposite

Not all experts agree with McGlone’s outlook. Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestseller “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” presents a diametrically opposite view. He believes that the upcoming collapse of traditional financial markets will act as a catalyst for capital inflows into Bitcoin as a safe haven from systemic crisis.

This dichotomy highlights the core dilemma for crypto investors: is Bitcoin a hedge against the financial system or a speculative bubble? McGlone sees it as a bubble ready to burst, while Kiyosaki considers it the only adequate response to systemic risk.