Middle East Conflict Threatens to Force EU Back to Russian Gas

(MENAFN) The escalating conflict across the Middle East is threatening to unravel the European Union’s hard-won commitment to sever its dependence on Russian natural gas — with Norway’s energy minister signaling that a politically charged reversal may now be inevitable.

Terje Aasland, Norway’s energy minister, suggested the turmoil could compel Brussels to revisit its timeline for phasing out Russian gas imports entirely — a plan previously set for late 2027. European gas prices have surged 75% this week alone, reaching a three-year high according to trading data, as the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes sent shockwaves through global energy markets.

The fallout has been immediate and severe. LNG tankers have largely ceased transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Qatar — the world’s second-largest LNG exporter — suspended production on Monday as the conflict intensified in the region.

Speaking at a press conference in Oslo on Tuesday, Aasland left little ambiguity about the direction of the conversation in European capitals.

“With the geopolitical situation we see now, I believe the debate [about resuming Russian gas imports] will be revived,” Aasland said, as cited by media.

He further cautioned that Norway — the EU’s single largest pipeline gas supplier — has no capacity to compensate for widening shortfalls, noting the country is already “producing at full capacity,” as cited by media. There is simply no additional output available, he stressed.

The exposure is significant. The EU sources between 5% and 15% of its total gas supply from Middle Eastern producers, with Qatar as the dominant regional partner. The US currently holds the largest overall share of EU LNG imports at 60%.

Last month, EU member states agreed to impose a full ban on Russian gas imports — once the bloc’s primary energy source — through a mechanism requiring a “reinforced majority” of countries under trade and energy legislation, deliberately bypassing the unanimous approval threshold used for sanctions. The move reflected how politically sensitive the measure remained across the bloc.

That sensitivity has only deepened. Hungary and Slovakia, both landlocked and disproportionately reliant on pipeline routes, have already threatened legal challenges against the ban — and the latest price shock is likely to amplify their opposition.

The financial stakes are stark. Goldman Sachs has warned that a sustained one-month disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could drive European gas prices a further 130% higher from current elevated levels — a scenario that would inflict severe strain on households and industrial operators across the continent.

US President Donald Trump has indicated that military operations targeting Iran could extend over several more weeks, offering little near-term reassurance to energy markets.

Moscow, for its part, has seized on the turmoil to reinforce its longstanding position. Russia has consistently portrayed itself as a dependable energy partner despite sweeping Western sanctions, while accusing Washington of seeking strategic dominance over global energy supply chains — a narrative that, amid the current crisis, may find a more receptive audience in some European capitals than it has in years.

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