Dongwu Securities: AI Data Centers Worsen Power Shortages, Gas Turbines Are the First Choice, AI Energy Storage Has Promising Potential

Soochow Securities released a research report stating that the explosion of AI computing power is widening the gap in U.S. electricity supply, leading to a surge in power demand. CSP manufacturers are building their own power sources, primarily gas turbines, followed by solar storage. Chinese companies will benefit from the high boom in U.S. power infrastructure construction. Key recommendations include core gas turbine manufacturers like Dongfang Electric, as well as Hailei Xun, Harbin Electric, and Shanghai Electric. Also, focus on leading solar storage companies such as Sungrow Power Supply, CATL, and EVE Energy.

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【Industry * Zeng Duohong】In-depth: AI Data Centers Intensify Power Shortages, Various Power Sources Demand Surges — U.S. Power Research Series Part 2

Under the explosion of AI computing power, the U.S. electricity supply gap has significantly widened, and power demand has surged. We forecast that by 2030, the total AI computing power in the U.S. will reach 153 GW, with peak electricity demand rising to 963 GW. Considering a peak load rate of 55%-60%, the required installed capacity for power generation in 2030 will be 1,751 GW, with an average annual addition of 100 GW over the next five years. From 2026 to 2030, the U.S. has only approved a total of less than 200 GW of new capacity, averaging just 50 GW per year, only meeting 50% of demand. Coupled with poor interconnection among the three major U.S. grids, long blackout durations, and ongoing decommissioning of thermal power plants, the rigid gap in power supply has become a core industry contradiction.

The preferred power supply method for AI data centers is gas turbines, followed by solar storage, with CSP manufacturers trending toward self-building power sources. AI data centers require highly stable power, and gas turbines are favored for their stable supply and low cost per kWh. Heavy-duty turbines are suitable for large-capacity scenarios, and modified aircraft turbines deliver quickly, fitting project deadlines sensitive to delivery times. IEA estimates that from 2024 to 2035, 80 GW of new gas-fired capacity will be added in the U.S., much of which will be directed toward data centers. Solar storage, due to its green energy attributes and economic benefits, is an important supplement, with mainstream manufacturers adopting a “gas turbine + solar storage” hybrid power supply scheme. Although SOFCs (Solid Oxide Fuel Cells) are quick to deploy, efficient, and low-carbon, their cost per kWh is relatively high, making them suitable only for small-scale distributed scenarios. Currently, North America’s market is dominated by Bloom Energy, which has secured over 2 GW of confirmed orders.

Chinese supply chains have achieved technological breakthroughs in complete gas turbine units and core components, fully benefiting from overseas order spillovers. The global gas turbine industry is experiencing both volume and price increases, with new orders over 10 MW reaching 58 GW in 2024, expected to rise to over 90 GW in 2025 (average price per MW at 1.5 million USD, totaling over 130 billion USD). GE, Mitsubishi, and Siemens together hold about 85% of the market share, with capacity scheduled through 2029-2030. Overseas product prices have increased by over 30%. Chinese companies have achieved domestication of F-class heavy-duty turbines, with Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric, and Harbin Electric Group as core manufacturers. Companies like Yili Co., Ltd. have made breakthroughs in turbine hot-end components, and Jereh has entered the North American aircraft modification turbine market as an authorized complete set supplier for Siemens. The domestication rate of core components continues to rise, and under the high industry boom globally, significant order spillover opportunities are emerging.

Investment advice: The explosion of AI computing power, the widening U.S. power supply gap, and surging power demand have led CSP manufacturers to build their own power sources, primarily gas turbines and secondarily solar storage. Chinese companies will benefit from the high boom in U.S. power infrastructure construction. Key recommendations include core gas turbine manufacturers like Dongfang Electric, as well as Hailei Xun, Harbin Electric, and Shanghai Electric. Also, focus on leading solar storage companies such as Sungrow Power Supply, CATL, and EVE Energy.

Risk tips: Intensified competition, policy changes exceeding expectations, slower-than-expected promotion of low-voltage DC energy storage solutions for AI data centers, and raw material supply shortages.

(Source: Cailian Press)